Afghanistan crisis and its possible effects

As the world sticks to its wait-and-see policy on Afghanistan, the warravaged country is gradually descending into a serious humanitarian crisis which, if not stopped, could have a spillover effect on the region and beyond — given that no country can stay in isolation in an interconnected, globalised world.

The emergence of Omicron variant of the coronavirus is a case in point: an almost unvaccinated African population looms as a threat to the whole world. Since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, responsible stakeholders, particularly Pakistan, have been warning of an imminent humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, but to no effect at all, let alone a meaningful one. According to a recent statement by the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), “Forty years of war, recurrent natural disasters, chronic poverty, drought and the COVID-19 pandemic have left more than 18 million people in Afghanistan in need of humanitarian assistance. The recent escalation in conflict and resulting upheaval have exacerbated needs and further complicated an extremely challenging operational context.” The OCHA further asserts, “Afghanistan is prone to recurrent natural disasters.

Given this underlying fragility — at the economic, political and security levels — the country is not able to cope with the consequences of such disasters, which puts additional strain on humanitarian actors working on the ground.” More worrying is a recent estimate by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), according to which “97 per cent of Afghans could plunge into poverty by mid-2022”. In the same context, Kanni Wignaraja, UN Assistant Secretary-General and UNDP Director of the Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific, states, “We are facing a full-on development collapse on top of humanitarian and economic crises. Half of the population is already in need of humanitarian support. This analysis suggests that we are on course for rapid, catastrophic deterioration in the lives of Afghanistan’s most vulnerable people.”

So, that leaves no doubt that if the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan is not timely addressed, it could have consequences not just locally, but at regional and international levels too. First and foremost, more and more refugees from Afghanistan will force their way into neighbouring countries for basic survival. Pakistan, with its largest and porous border with Afghanistan, would be hit the most. According to a UNHCR report of December 2020, about 1.4 million registered Afghan refugees are already living in Pakistan, apart from a large number of those that have remained unregistered. And if the crisis in Afghanistan grows, it is sure to cause a huge influx of refugees into Pakistan. Given that the country is already suffering from a financial crisis, the situation would be unmanageable. Second, humanitarian crisis tends to bread poverty; poverty breads violence; and violence gives rise to terrorism and extremism — and if such a situation happens in Afghanistan, it will further undermine the credibility of the Taliban to rule Afghanistan.

That violence and terrorism would spill out of the Afghan borders is not an unlikely scenario — something that no stakeholder could afford. Third, a crisis-hit Afghan population could easily be exploited by the spoilers — in what would be a serious challenge for the Taliban government to deal with. The country could plunge into a state failure, warranting an outside intervention. The world, therefore, must come up with practical measures to address the looming humanitarian threat in Afghanistan. The ongoing OIC moot in Islamabad is an encouraging step in the context. Besides, the more recent calls by former US diplomats and ex-servicemen to help address the Afghan humanitarian crisis may help shape the perceived attitude of leading powers, including the U