Comprehensive strategic détente with TTP

Peace in Pakistan is deeply linked with peace in Afghanistan. History is witness to the happenings of last 40 years in Afghanistan where Pakistan one way or the other paid a huge price, largely undue. The current scenario offers no exception and it has started affecting Pakistan.

Pakistan’s civil and military leadership has unequivocally expressed their desire for a stable, peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan without any foreign interventions. It is a sad reality that Pakistan hasn’t got its due and instead being maligned by certain vested interest groups, despite the unprecedented sacrifices.

Of the many, one key knock on effect of the recent Afghanistan situation is the reinvigoration of TTP in parts of Pakistan. The Kabul triumph, as expected, has boosted TTP morale, ambitions and operations.

More than 80 attacks have been carried out since then resulting in martyrdom of scores of security forces personnel.

The genesis and resolution of violent militancy is described below, using a pragmatic lens.

Apart from core beliefs of Islamic Sharia and Jihad, the genesis of violent militancy in Pakistan has roots in our social, economic, justice, education and governance system.

Illiteracy, social injustices, marginalisation, economic woes and political isolation lead to desperation. Once this desperation reaches a certain level, victims start searching for opportunities to vent out their frustration.  

Unfortunately, fewer opportunities were available for productive channelisation of that energy. The vacuum generated by decades of marginalisation was adequately filled by “Taliban doctrine”, which capitalised on Islamic convictions, US aggression and state repression. 

The mushroom growth in Taliban ranks started after the Damadola US drone attack in Bajaur and formally launched as an entity after the Lal Masjid operation in December 2007.

While successive governments were busy in mis-governance and cosmetic services, the influence of militant Islamists kept growing. Peace accords were made and violated.

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Military interventions as a last resort could silence the guns in the troubled spots but in an environment of socio-politico chaos, mis-governance, elitism and below par justice system; how long could that sustain normalcy?

The writing on history wall loudly says that with widespread corruption, poor governance and lack of public trust, no war can be won. The recent meltdown of Afghanistan army to a force much lower in size, armours and facilities is an undeniable proof.

Sensing the growing fear of newly fueled militancy vis a vis Pakistan national interests the civil- military leadership thought of engaging TTP via current Afghan government.

There could be three text book strategies to deal with; one purely military, the other a pragmatic and a third one a combination of both.

The military option is fighting fire with fire only, the flames of which may reach far, causing damages across, to no one’s advantage. A onetime victory is not the ultimate win rather a transitory respite.

The pragmatic one is solely based on engagement, dialogue, quid pro quo and space for reformed entities in national mainstream. History of previous exclusive peace accords and their fate don’t depict a rosy picture. 

The third option is the hybrid solution: This strategy involves pre-empting a surge in militancy via coordinated intelligence, targeted operations and simultaneous engagement plus fast-paced socio-economic development.

Best possible course would be a “strategic but conditional comprehensive détente” that goes in tandem with structural reforms menu. That include, mainstreaming of  benign dissidents, initiating genuine Madaris reforms, visible development of tribal belt and a set of visible governance reforms to uproot systemic ills.

On the other hand the other party has to agree for peaceful coexistence and disembarking the armed expedition, submitting to the writ of the state.

It is imperative that a monitoring framework is developed and ratified at the start of any peace accord with sanctions attached. To add more flesh to the accord, guarantees/guarantors from both the parties be agreed at the very start.

Dialogue is not considered a welcomed strategy by a section of the society for understandable reasons and I deeply feel for those but then how long more incidents like APS we can afford? Can we afford more violent sit-isn by TLP?

Further, the ground realities now and back in 2013 are totally different, then we had an un-friendly Afghan govt, divided civil-military approach to talks and India was actively engaged in Afghanistan. This time the military leadership has taken a more pragmatic approach and the state has the opportunity to build on that.

A negotiated settlement taking all pillars of the state and recognised religious elites, thought leaders on board seems the best way forward. 

History bears witness to the resolution of some chronic disputes through negotiations, the one with Irish Republican Army, Moro liberation front in Philippines are few of the success stories.

The ultimate pathway to lasting peace and stability in Pakistan is to counter the “raison detre” of militancy and address the underlying causes rather than lip services.

Ushering in an arena of social justice, fair opportunities for growth, result- oriented development and improved governance system are the recipe for a sustainable win win.

Holy Quran has beautifully enshrined a recipe in Surah, Al-Hujraat:

“And if two groups of believers fight each other, then make peace between them. But if one of them transgresses against the other, then fight against the transgressing group until them ˹are willing to˺ submit to the rule of Allah. If they do so, then make reconciliation between both ˹groups˺ in all fairness and act justly. Surely Allah loves those who uphold justice”.

Dr Nadeem Jan, Tamgha-e-Imtiaz, is an internationally recognised health & policy expert, who has an illustrious career with UN, USAID, World Bank, Gates Foundation, and many governments. He can be reached at [e-mail]

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