History repeating itself in Afghanistan

The situation in Afghanistan has unfolded so rapidly that the US administration and the world at large have been taken by complete surprise. The intelligence estimate by the US have fallen by the wayside as they had predicted that the Afghan security forces would be able to hold on for six months and in a worst-case scenario for ninety days. What is most surprising is that the US intelligence which is known to be one of the world’s top agencies was completely off the mark.

Was this a miscalculation or a ruse to serve a larger purpose? This would remain a subject of interest to conspiracy theorists and historians for quite a while.

The hasty withdrawal of US forces and the collapse of the Afghan army has been a serious setback to US credibility. Many Afghans are questioning if their heavy reliance on the US was a correct decision. It is most surprising that the US spent over two trillion dollars in the last twenty years on Afghanistan which certainly does not show anywhere. The US withdrawal does bear similarity with the Soviet exit from Afghanistan except that the latter resulted in the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Apart from other factors, the corrupt practices of the Afghan government and its army leadership seriously soiled the institution’s reputation. Undoubtedly, the US deluded itself in assessing the capability of the Afghan army. Police too collapsed without putting up any resistance. Now the Biden administration faces the reality of dealing with the Taliban-led government. The secret departure of President Ghani was another shock for the people and a reaffirmation of the bankruptcy of the previous ruling junta.

Washington is now using its global supremacy to ensure that Taliban leadership is restrained from being revengeful and conducts itself according to international norms. The statement by sixty countries denouncing the Taliban leadership and stating they will not recognise its government unless it has a broad representation reiterates this policy.

Taliban leadership, concerned with the mass exodus and fearing that the civil war may take a new form, has been trying to reassure the Afghan people not to leave the country. They have even declared a general amnesty but few are willing to take them on their word. Although, Taliban realise that for their reputation and recognition by the international community an orderly transfer of power is crucial, wherein, Kabul and the rest of the country remain peaceful.

A more pertinent question on the minds of many is whether the Taliban leadership has learnt from their past mistakes and changed over the years. Do they realise that in the last two decades Afghans especially those living in Kabul and other major cities have a very different world view and outlook? Undoubtedly, the transformation of Afghan women is more pronounced and significant. They have demonstrated their competence and ability in government positions, parliament and politics.

They are more alive of their rights as they had an opportunity to go to school, interacted with social media and listened to foreign media. In Islam, women enjoy equal rights and it is expected that Taliban will not reverse their emancipation. The young generation of Afghans too has undergone a change due to foreign exposure and access to better educational facilities in cities.

But will the Taliban accept and tolerate these transformations and negotiate a new social contract? This would largely depend on the extent to which the Taliban have changed over the years and shed their narrow world view. Being strongly committed to their ideological beliefs it would be difficult for them to change. Equally important is what level of flexibility would the new generation of Afghans show to accommodate the Taliban conservative governance. In all likelihood the process of accommodation is not expected to succeed at least in the near term and the country will remain ideologically torn and unstable.

This will affect the economy which is in distress and was heavily dependent on US and foreign assistance as well as illegal trade. The continuation of Western economic assistance and support of international monetary agencies like World Bank and Asian Development Bank would be contingent on the policies and conduct of the Taliban government. Perhaps realising the significance of these, the Taliban are trying to present a “soft image” to the world. The announcement of a general amnesty and repeated assurances to public to continue with their normal activities reflect their concern that governance would only be possible with their cooperation.

In a move to pressurise the Taliban, the US along with sixty other countries have announced not recognising the Taliban government imposed by force and lacking support of a broad cross section of Afghan society. And while the US and Nato have lost the war, they are flexing their muscle to alter the behaviour and policies of the Taliban. In this, they certainly enjoy considerable leverage. Their insistence of an inclusive government in Afghanistan is correct and Pakistan and Iran support this policy. Imposing sanctions and punitive measures would drive Taliban leadership closer to its neighbours China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan. This should contribute to stabilising Afghanistan. Moreover, any punitive action would add to the misery of Afghans making them more vulnerable to exploitation by militant organisations.

With lawlessness increasing, the Taliban government should ensure that life and property remain safe. The humanitarian needs of Afghans should be given the highest priority. If those opposed to the Taliban that constitute a large segment in urban areas stay in country and work out a social contract it would be the best course. There is a dire need to work for a common Afghan identity which has been destroyed by the prevalence of the prolonged civil war. In this effort, the neighboring countries could play a constructive role. Clearly, for better or worse this is a watershed moment especially for the younger generation of Afghanistan. There are also lessons for the US and major powers from the way Afghanistan was mishandled. The consequences of failure would haunt America for decades.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 18^th, 2021.

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