Will Pakistan soon recover — or recover at all — from the deep malaise that currently inflicts it? There are a number of things that are hurting the country. Some of them are understood, such as the troubles on the economic front. Economists know what the solutions are to get the country to walk back from the edge of the abyss. The real problem is that the political establishment does not have the will to do what needs to be done. Then there is the problem created by unsettled politics. In a way, this is healthy for the development of the political system. The country is learning to find solutions through discourse and accommodation rather than letting the military put its heavy hand on politics.
It is the third problem — that of resort to violence to gain ground against opponents — that poses the most serious challenge to the country. Pakistan cannot make progress unless different kinds of violence that have become routine are brought under control. It is because of this that the World Bank in its 2011 World Development Report has included Pakistan, along with a score of other countries, in its list of fragile states. In fact, there are three ongoing wars in Pakistan. There is no end in sight for any of them: they are the wars in Karachi, the war among the various sects of Islam, and the war between the state and various extremist groups. It is the explosion in Karachi with which I will deal today.
The ethnic war in Karachi started a couple of decades back but subsided in intensity for a while. Its main cause is the inability of its very diverse population to further their interests without hurting those of the rest. The city has grown fifty-fold since the country gained independence 64 years ago. Had Karachi grown by the natural increase in population — in Pakistan’s case by 2.85 per cent a year — it would have doubled in size about every 25 years. Had it grown at a rate normal for large urban centers — about five per cent a year — its population would have doubled every 14 years. In the latter case, the city’s population would be around nine million, less than half its present size. Instead, the city’s population has increased by six per cent a year.
What caused the explosion in Karachi’s population are three waves of migration that brought three very different people in search of jobs and, ironically, security. In other words, if Karachi today has a population of 20 million, slightly more than a third of it is made of the Muhajir community, about a fourth of the original Sindhi-Makrani population, about a fourth also the of the Pashtun and the remaining one-sixth of other ethnic groups. There are supposedly one million people from Bihar and Bangladesh who reside in the city.
This ethnic brew continues to churn and produce violence. The several communities that make up the city’s population have not found a way of developing an institutional response to resolving their differences.
Research suggests that rapid urban growth is associated with weakened social cohesions and increased risk of violence. Karachi, as discussed above, increased in size at a rate much more than that of other megacities in the world. But despite its explosive growth, the city had one advantage: rough balance in the numbers of people belonging to different ethnic and social groups. This should have led to politics and economics of inclusion rather than that of exclusion. That happened for a while when the Muhajir community gained political control of the city. Its leaders worked to develop not only the areas populated by their community but those of other ethnic groups as well. However, that balance was disturbed by the escalation of violence in the Pashtun areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan. This generated another wave of migration which has brought in more people from this ethnic group. They are now trying to find economic and political space for themselves in the city and that has led to violence once again. The solution is not the use of force; it has to be economic and political accommodation of the people who feel excluded.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 15th, 2011.
COMMENTS (10)
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@Meekal Ahmed: Your point is well take but it is difficult to measure the economic loss since so many things have happened from loss of life to property and not to mention diversion of law-enforcement forces (Rangers and army) to internal duty. Also days lost at work due to closure of traffic and just because of scare.
Don't you think it is easy to point out issues. Can you recommend one solution and ways to implement that solution? Accommodating every ethnic group is easier said than done. London is a metropolitan city as well with population having diverse ethnic beliefs and ethics yet we don't see such killings or political tug of war. The problem here is that every political party is a hypocrite and working for its own hidden agenda. None care about the common people and that's the reason people are divided. This was clear yesterday where I hardly saw any Pakistani spirit.
a very cogent article and good comments by Arifq
Good points, Sir. Apart from the loss of life, the economic costs of the Karachi problem must be huge. I wish someone could estimate these losses so that things are put in perspective. We are too often cavalier about these things. As though they do not matter.
I am less sanguine about "discourse and accomodation". True this nascent democracy is a bit of a wild ride and the hope is that it will settle down. But time is running out.
Karachi is not alone in this phenomenon it is a worldwide phenomenon. The World Bank's understanding of local governance forms is not sophisticated. They cannot tell apples from oranges! That's why Karachi needs the LG system! All cities that are urbanizing and developing urbanizing areas in their peripheries need such a system. We live in a modern world, so we need a modern system.
I agree with Burki Sahib, the key word is "accommodation" may it be political, economic or religious. But does accommodation imply surrendering what is important? Should the soul of Karachi be lost to the changed dynamics? Shall we all succumb to the tribal values that are being imposed? Accommodation is certainly the ideal method in a civilized society where ddifferent ideas are mixed and the best suited are allowed to rise, sadly the same does not apply in this case where people are relying on guns and use of force.
I personally feel that these shoot-outs in Karachi, now taking place regularly, are being controlled and instigated by greedy mobs who fully understand the long-term importance of Karachi which is the nearest warm-water sea port for Central Asian countries of the former Soviet Union. The alleged hatred among different communities is hardly ever witnessed in upscale areas of the city. In other words, if educated people are residing in a locality, there is less likelihood of such friction. The Pashtuns and the so-called Mohajir community in Karachi are actually inter-dependent. If the truck and lorry drivers are mostly Pashtuns, the goods that they carry largely belong to factory owners of the Mohajir-Memon community. Similarly, if the bus, taxi, and auto-rickshaw owners/drivers were restricted only to those areas where Pashtuns dominate, their profits would go down to such an extent that they would be forced to leave this trade. It is clear, thus, that there is something more than what meets the eye, and the government seems to be least interested in finding a solution.
The ethnic violence and target killing is due to lower and mid level layers of all political parties not just only 3 parties ,i say most of them.The area from where the ethnic division starts there is sounds of gun fire and disturbance, something needs to be done by our politicians a quick solution in order to restore peace in the heart of country.Removing flags of political parties and banners was first step but didn't see it implementing.Because when preparation of next election campaign is of concern for our politicians instead of the lives of the innocent citizens.
Burki sahib, Your essay touches on so many different aspects of political and economic developments and I understand your quest. Pakistan, unfortunately, never had political leadership with a vision for tomorrow, and a determination to serve the people. All we had was a hodge-podge of political opportunists, and that is the source of Pakistani malaise. Remember early days’ political struggles at the center, in East Bengal and not to mention in Punjab. Things have not changed since then and perhaps never will. Every new day dawns with something new and that is where we find ourselves encircled. Second, politics of accommodation or putting it in broader terms, accommodative attitude has never been our way of life. We are, regrettably very self-centered. Accommodative politics is only possible if there are consensus/agreements on major public policies including the recognition of rights of ethnic or regional minorities. If you are thinking of Arend Lijphart’s politics of accommodation, Sir, we are too far and you know that better than I do.
This is very scary and apart from the loss of life, the economic costs must be huge.
I am not as sanguine as you, however, that we have found, or can find, a better way through "discourse and accomodation". Sure, this is a young, immature and chaotic democracy and we need to give it more time to grow. But time and patience may be two commodities that we could be running out of.