The great equaliser

The world moves in strange ways. There are small events — called “butterfly” events — with oversized implications like the fat-laden rifle cartridge that led to the Indian War of Independence in 1857. And then, there are moments — called “Suez” moments — that catapult an existing order with historic implications. The coronavirus pandemic is a Suez moment whose implications are unfolding with tremendous uncertainty. Its ramifications are being vigorously debated, as summed up by Patrick Wintour of The Guardian (April 11, 2021).

The central idea of response to the pandemic is to “do it together”. No country can go at it alone, as no measures of sealing borders, isolation, strict adherence to the SOPs and hoarding medical supplies, etc. would ever protect us from a pathogen that is universal in its reach, and is there to stay. This pandemic of the digital age, spins our scientific knowledge upside down, as the “unseen being” mutates and recreates itself in shocking ways.

The onslaught of the virus challenges the contemporary “competing ideologies, power blocs, leaders and systems of social cohesion” in an epoch-making manner… with our global village exceedingly drifting towards an uncertain and foggy future, after inconclusive tests and trials.

In their feel-good appeals, leaders are promising to emerge stronger from this calamity. There are renewed calls for more investment in the healthcare systems and the associated supply chains. The World Health Organization (WHO) and Pakistan are emphasising to liberalise the vaccine-formula to ensure its equitable availability to the poorer nations. The international drug-manufacturing multinationals like Pfizer are accused of politicising the vaccine distribution; and all others are mostly driven by the profit motive… from a vaccine, whose efficacy against the deadly Covid-19 is yet to be proved.

Europe is retreating back to its core and ethnic identities, contracting the global village, painstakingly created after the Treaty of Maastricht (1992). We witnessed Russia and China coming to rescue Spain and Italy rather than their treaty brothers in the European Union, when these nations badly needed medical supplies. The world awaits the new rules of business after the pandemic is over… an elusive goal in itself, given the dysfunctional relations among the big powers… the United States, China, Russia and the EU.

There is a conscious and vigorous effort underway in the US/Western camp to undermine China, stunt its growth and target it in the re-emergent Cold War 2.0. China’s cooperation in the global supply of medical provisions, in the spirit of cooperation, is painted as competition from a “rising” China. The Quad (Australia, India, Japan and the US) grouping is a crude attempt to balance China through an unwieldy India… that, sadly, itself reels from the ravages of the third wave.

As opined in this space, the virus got its publicity due to its Chinese origin. And the West thought it an opportunity to arrest China’s rise. However, the tables were turned and China effectively contained the pathogen. Now on the “victory lap” of sorts, China confidently touts the success of its response and its “political system”. Eminent scholars like Prof Stephen Walt of Harvard University, forecast the “shift of power and influence from West to East” consequent to a weakened “Western Brand”. Global leadership is undergoing intense competition among the US, China and Russia.

Virus-containment successes by other Confucian states like Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, etc. where life is more organised, people are subjected to digital surveillance and authority is revered, indicate the effectiveness of a strong central order (read: authoritarianism in some cases) as opposed to a liberal democratic order. Sizeable populations in the Western world — fashioned after the Southeast Asian model of relative success — have voluntarily surrendered their most cherished individual freedoms. This is causing rifts within and leading to immense psychological problems for the “caged” humanity in the US/West. Administratively, Southeast Asia also fosters the merits of a “centralised or regionalized” healthcare systems.

Concentration of production of drugs and medical supplies in fewer countries is another area of concern. The world has to deal with its drawbacks once the supply chain is stressed or obstructed, as witnessed in the devastating oxygen supply crisis in India recently. Even the “import-dependent” export powerhouses like South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, etc. are affected by shortages in the raw materials. The crisis puts to question the operational capacities of organisations like the WHO and the UN.

Without going into details, evidently the global economic order is under stress and is likely to remain so. The group-think forecasts two scenarios; one of a global cooperation to control the pandemic; and the other of going at it alone — the individual country-specific response — to protect its citizenry. The global/regional response is considered the way to go, as no nation of its own can control the pathogen, unless the global village that we created, is undone and we start living again in our local bubbles.

Hoarding medical supplies for in-country usage only and export limits on raw materials, badly needed elsewhere for vaccine production (India’s unsuccessful recent pleadings with the US), is pure and callous selfishness. By protecting ourselves and leaving others to fate, we enhance our own vulnerability. To paraphrase the Spanish Foreign Minister, Arancha González, “a first-class cabin would not protect you when the whole ship sinks.”

Just like other common threats to human existence on planet Earth… our only home, like climate change, this virus is a “great equaliser” as it seeks to flatten the curve of inequality. Our uncoordinated response to this crisis, seeped in ambivalence will never work. The panacea is to go together… regionally and globally. Perhaps we are ordained by the All Powerful to rally around, simply as humanity, rather than in competitive and mostly antagonistic groups.

Nationally we have to expand our healthcare systems and the associated supply chain… exponentially and flexibly; from training of more healthcare workers in all categories… to scaling up drugs and vaccine production… to building modular healthcare facilities to deal with surges… to increasing production of medical equipment and supplies especially critical elements like oxygen... to continuously educating our citizenry. Indeed, a tall order, that can be funded by imposing corona-related taxation.

We are into an age of pathogens, hence the need for easily mobilised and expandable, massive healthcare systems and robust supply chains and reserves. The world survives, like we did from the influenza pandemic, a century ago.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 29^th, 2021.

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