India likely to use force against Pakistan under Modi's leadership: US report

Says heightened tensions in the region raise the risk of conflict; rules out full-scale war

ISLAMABAD:

India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force against Pakistan under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, according to a US intelligence report.

The annual threat assessment report released by the US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) was sent to Congress this week, stating that India could respond to “perceived or real” provocations from Pakistan.

It noted that “heightened tensions” in the region “raise the risk of conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints.”

Though ruling out “a general war” between the two countries, terming it unlikely during the ongoing year, the report warned that “crises between the two are likely to become more intense, risking an escalatory cycle.”

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It identified China’s “push for global power” as the primary threat to US interests, taking into account provocations from Russia and threats from Iran.

A similar US intelligence report last week warned that Pakistan and could go to war in the next five years in response to real or perceived provocations.

It stressed that regional conflicts – unrest in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria – have “direct implications for US security,” while “tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan remain a concern for the world.”

According to the Director DNI Avril Haines, the report provides a “nuanced, independent, and unvarnished intelligence” assessment to “policymakers, warfighters, and domestic law enforcement personnel.”