Is history repeating itself?

If PDM succeeds in removing this govt, no govt will be strong enough to stabilise the political and economic situation

The Senate elections of March 3 tremendously jolted the political landscape in the country. Although the ruling party won a good number of seats, the hotly contested general seat for Islamabad was the epic event in this screenplay that overshadowed the overall success.

The victory of candidate backed by Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) evoked mixed remarks from various political figures. Those who are on treasury benches called it “a very sad day for democracy”, while the PDM called it a “great win for democracy”. Such comments were expected and are a part of Pakistan’s political culture. Obviously, what democracy means for everyone is subjective. It needs much in-depth discussion to conclude what democracy “may” mean in Pakistan. Meanwhile, just focusing on what may happen after the Senate elections, it seems that political instability is likely.

In the developments following the Senate elections, the two poles are not sitting well in the scenario. As a confidence boosting measure, Prime Minister Imran Khan gathered a vote of confidence with a clear majority, yet this move has not blown the opposition’s wits as was expected by the government. The PDM remains persistent on its demands to de-seat Imran and overthrow the government. One might think this is something new in Pakistani politics.

In fact, this is not the first time in Pakistan’s history that such situations have emerged. In 1950s, Chaudhry Muhammad Ali lost his seat as PM as a result of a successful vote of no-confidence moved by his own party. After that, Hussain Shaheed Suharwardy faced a similar fate as he had to resign after losing control over his party and support from his allies.

Movements like the PDM have also existed in the past like the Pakistan National Alliance of 1970s which demanded the resignation of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s government. Surprisingly, this time, Bilawal Bhutto is working with BNP, JUI and ANP and playing the same tactics which were used against his grandfather.

Eventually, all these events ultimately led the country into a political turmoil and derailed democracy and the same is probable now.

Despite Imran winning the vote of confidence, the PDM insists on de-seating him. Learning from history, the PDM should be calm and let the government complete its term as the cost of instability would be high. If the PDM succeeds in removing this government, no succeeding government will be strong enough to stabilise the political and economic situation.

It has happened before that opposition alliances have fallen apart following political instability. It is also possible that in case of a re-election or new coalition government, the PDM may break down into right and left segments.

In a nutshell, it appears that history is repeating itself. Although the MNAs stood in majority behind the PM, events like Gilani’s win indicate that the control mechanisms in the ruling party have weakened and coalition partners also bear dissenting sentiments. Meanwhile, a group of ideologically divergent parties with convergent situational interests is building pressure around the government to quit.

This is the time for Imran to show if he can stand the adverse winds firmly or not. Meanwhile, there is still time for other political parties to act rationally. Lessons from the past should be kept in sight while taking political decisions that are more likely to result in a power vacuum and an instable governing arena which is in no one’s interest. This time history should not be allowed to repeat itself.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 10^th, 2021.

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