Post-Covid world order and geopolitics

The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the dismal state of the global order. It can be seen that nations have regressed into narrow selfish policies, and the tenet of rule-based international order has been negated completely. The primary focus of the world powers is to acquire hegemony in the post-pandemic world, instead of finding solutions to the universal challenges.

With this situation, we can envisage a collapse of the post-WWII liberal international order. The US-China rivalry is festering to the point of becoming irredeemable. Global institutions are incapable of addressing the crisis and the politicised WHO is losing its credibility.

The international image of the world’s main superpower is deteriorating at an alarming pace. The incompetent US governance in averting the burgeoning Covid-19 cases and deaths, soaring xenophobia and racism; and polarised population has sabotaged its hegemonic position and challenged its democratic governing model. Meanwhile, China, a Communist state, has done much better than the US.

The American model of democracy is no more idealised. Trump’s move to withdraw funding from WHO, and his botched attempt at rebranding coronavirus as the “China virus” depicted his intransigent attitude. Trump’s decisions have led the US to a state of catastrophic affairs, from where its rise to its pre-pandemic status is very much improbable. Economic recession caused by Covid-19 will shape a new role for the US — and a new world order.

In contrast, China will continue its stability and predictability in the area of economic growth from the Asian periphery, post-pandemic. Petro-yawn diplomacy in the oil market; BRI projects; investment in Asian countries; developments in the South China Sea and technological shifts are leading China to another level. Aiming at countering Western hegemonic powerhouses, particularly the US, China is a counterbalance as it formulates a strong apparatus for domestic supply chains and logistic support through approaching the calibrated approach both nationally and internationally. Its decisive response towards Covid-19 and soft power diplomacy have heightened its stature in the international arena. Providing medical assistance to developing countries was a laudable measure. China’s commendable response has undermined the notion that democracy is the best form of governance and has shown that it is the people’s belief in the state that matters.

Covid-19 will determine the rise and fall of nations. It is also a contest to determine which type of governance will prove the most resilient. A clear display of China’s soft power is pivotal in the geopolitical scenario, which may accelerate the shift in power from the West to the East.

In the case of geopolitics, while the global liberal order is being threatened, nationalism and populism in the wake of Covid-19 are leading the situation towards debilitating affairs. World powers have been exposed at the time of need. Dereliction of war-torn countries and inclination towards selfish policies, ruptured global supply chains, a re-assessment of interconnected global economy and reservations of medical supplies for domestic use have undermined globalisation and manifested the accentuation of nationalism.

We are on the cusp of a new world order in which forces hindering globalisation are boosting nationalism and regionalism. Multilateralism and global corporation are likely to face a serious setback. Advanced economies will be busy repairing damages at home and the problems of developing countries will get less attention. Hence, we might see a decline in activities of international development and cooperation. Similarly, the world wrecked by economic difficulties and unemployment will be a breeding ground for xenophobia, and unfortunately, we may see a rise in populism and repressive regimes placing democracy and pluralism at stake.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, November 30^th, 2020.

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