Biden’s win and future of Afghanistan
The writer is a development anthropologist. He can be reached at ali@policy.hu
With violence still not under control in Afghanistan, the Biden win in in the US Presidential election will have important implications for the American withdrawal from its longest military intervention to date. While we may not see another US military surge in Afghanistan, Biden will have a tougher time pulling out from the country lest some semblance of an intra-Afghan compromise has been reached.
After the American decision to bypass the Afghan government and directly engage in peace talks with the Taliban, the Taliban adopted a dual policy of using violence and negotiating peace in order to maximise their control of the post-American Afghan setup.
With a Biden win, America may not pull out as recklessly as President Trump may have done if he had secured a second term. Most analysts concur that Biden will need to ultimately follow through on the decision to exit Afghanistan. Yet, we can expect the US to now begin paying more attention to what may happens to Afghanistan after its withdrawal.
Biden’s win has also infused some confidence in the hapless Afghan government that the US will now be less in a rush to exit Afghanistan and that it may take a tougher stance with the Taliban, even if that somewhat delays the US exit from the region.
A Biden government is likely to listen to concerns of allies, including those in Kabul, as well as experts in its own national security establishment, and be willing to adjust its policy of drawdown and disengagement accordingly.
It is possible that the Taliban will modify their maximalist stance and be willing to make more concessions to the Afghan government, and to guarantee women and citizen rights, in addition to trying to assure the US that they will not allow Al Qaeda or ISIS to begin operating with further impunity.
However, if intra-Afghan talks fail entirely, this time around, we won’t only witness a civil war but a regional proxy war which can lead to much broader regional destabilisation. There are a range of neighbouring states with contending interests in the region including not only Pakistan but Qatar, Iran, India, the Saudis, the UAE, China and Russia as well as American and European countries.
Most regional players, including Pakistan, want a stable government in Afghanistan, even if they disagree on who should control the country after the Americans depart. Pakistan too has long suffered the consequences of Afghan instability due to refugee flows and the growth of militancy. However, Pakistan’s approach to Afghanistan has for too long been dominated by geostrategic rather than economic imperatives.
Despite some talk of putting in place a reconstruction zone of opportunity between Afghanistan and Pakistan, the US remained primarily concerned with pressuring Pakistan to address security concerns and to apply pressure on the Taliban. Pakistan now needs to build a good economic relationship with Afghanistan instead of continuing to focus on the India-centric strategic depth imperatives.
Unlike India, Pakistan has not invested in Afghanistan’s development. It has not built any road infrastructure into Afghanistan, or any railway lines connecting the two countries. Pakistan could also have done more to put in place trade and customs procedures to facilitate increased trade. This situation may now be changing, especially due to the Gwadar seaport, which has recently been used to begin shipping goods to Afghanistan via new trade posts in Balochistan.
Pakistan played an important role in helping the US in negotiating with the Taliban, which has enabled it to mend its fences with America over the past couple years. It now needs to redouble efforts to play a more supportive role in facilitating Afghan-centric peace negotiations. Besides hosting Taliban negotiations with the US, or inviting contentious figures like Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Pakistan’s decision to invite Abdullah Abdullah, who heads the National Reconciliation Council to facilitate intra-Afghan peace, is certainly a step in the right direction.
Pakistan will find a sympathetic ear in the Biden administration if it can articulate feasible trilateral arrangements to help boost long-term stability and economic prosperity.
Published in The Express Tribune, November 20th, 2020.
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