India must soften its hard-handed approach in Kashmir: International Crisis Group

Brussels-based organization cautions of potentially disastrous consequences of New Delhi’s actions

In a damning report that warns of dire consequences of the illegal occupation of Kashmir, the International Crisis Group has recommended that India’s allies must urge it to relax the clampdown in the valley.

“The crackdown that followed New Delhi’s overhaul of the country’s only Muslim-majority state has not only failed to quell dissent but also risks fueling more violence,” cautioned the Brussels-based organization that focuses on preventing conflicts.

To avoid further isolation of the Kashmiri people, the report advices the Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in New Delhi to release detained politicians, re-engage with the political class and end security forces’ abuses.  “India’s international partners should press it in that direction,” the report stresses.

The group also warns that the longstanding dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, has the potential of developing into an unintended military conflict.

Commenting on the report, Professor Talat Wizarat said “International pressure must be applied on India which has brutally crushed the Kashmiri people for decades.”

“India should be pressurized by its allies to resolve the issue. It is  about time the global community starts thinking about resolving the dispute and that should be done in accordance with what the Kashmiri people want,” added Dr. Wizarat, a senior foreign policy expert who follows the developments very closely.

Strongly disagreeing with parts of the report, Dr. Wizarat said: “I don’t think Pakistan is supporting freedom fighters and if we are not, we must now.”  “If supporting freedom fighters is a bad thing, why were the Indian’s supporting the Mukti Bahini in Bangladesh,” she questioned.

On August 5, 2019, shortly after its election victory, the BJP government ended Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status under the constitution’s Article 370. The move instantly deprived the valley of its limited rights and redrew the state’s internal boundaries the very next day.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s coterie of hardliners also revoked the constitution’s Article 35A, taking away the rights from permanent residents to own immovable property, vote in or contest elections in the state, and seek employment in local government.

Earlier this year, the Modi government passed the new domicile law, allowing Indian citizens from elsewhere in the country to become permanent residents of the illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir, a mountainous, predominantly Muslim territory that has turned into a minefield between India and Pakistan.

Criticizing Modi’s attempt to engineer demographic change to dilute Kashmir’s ethnic and religious identity, Dr. Wizarat said: “Kashmiris should not be expected to sit and watch while India changes the demographic realities of the region.”

Eight million Kashmiris, she warned, cannot be killed and maimed the way Modi is taking it forward.   Concurring with the Crisis Group report, Dr. Wizarat said: “Anger and frustration over the situation is pushing more Kashmiris, particularly the youth, toward joining the freedom struggle.

In its report titled ‘Raising stakes in Jammu and Kashmir’ the group also blames India’s heavy-handed tactics for the rise in the in suppressible movement for freedom. “While India attributes the steady rise of militancy over the last three decades to Pakistan-based groups, the root causes of Kashmiri militancy remain internal,” the report states.

“The BJP’s gagging of voices critical of its unilateral decisions has antagonized even those who have historically supported the Indian state. If such moves are aimed at creating a more pliant political leadership and dampening local opposition to the 5 August moves, they are unlikely to work,” cautioned the International Crisis Group.”

In its 37-page report, the International Crisis Group takes a tough line on the actions taken by Indian security forces in Kashmir. “Kashmiris born in the last three decades have known nothing but Indian military occupation,” the group stated in the broad-spectrum report.

“India has taken a page from American playbook. In Iraq, the American used all their military might to break the will of the people. In Kashmir, Modi is trying to break the will to resist,” said Dr. Wizarat, who believes the Indian prime minister’s actions are completely misguided.

“Modi needs to revisit history. His actions will only strengthen the will of the Kashmiri people. If he thinks he can break the will of the Kashmiri people by ramping up atrocities, he is mistaken,” said Dr. Wizarat.

On the rising number of casualties in Kashmir, the International Crisis Group’s hard-hitting report said: “Tens of thousands of Kashmiris have been killed since the 1990s by either the military or the militants.”  Cut off from the world since the illegal takeover a year ago, Dr. Wizarat described the picturesque valley as a living hell of fear for the people.  “You can’t get away with killing millions of innocent Kashmiris,” added Dr. Wizarat.

The International Crisis Group also poured scorn on the Modi government for creating a dangerous climate of impunity for security forces. “The prevalence of enforced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, custodial torture and sexual violence are a direct consequence of legislation that applies solely to the region,” the report said.

“The Special Powers Act creates a climate of impunity because it shields soldiers from trial in civilian courts without the central government’s permission,” the report states.

The way forward

With BJP in no mood for compromise, the report indicates there is little reason to believe that the unilateral actions of August 5, 2019 will be reversed.  It terms the Modi government’s refusal to acknowledge the Kashmiri leadership as problematic.

“The prohibition of political activity in the Valley is stripping New Delhi of any potential Kashmir allies.”

Contrary to the advertised position, the voluntary decision to strip Kashmir of its special status, the report said, has further aggravated the sense of alienation.

These actions, the report warned, will cause lasting damage to New Delhi’s already fraught relations with Kashmiris, stripping it of any local allies, potentially driving an entire generation of young Kashmiris toward militancy and condemning the region to continued unrest and violence.

The solution

According to the report, the EU and US. both reacted to the August 2019 events. However, the issue does not appear central to their interaction with the Indian government. “It should be brought back to the fore,” the report recommends.

Dr. Wizarat believes restoring the pre-August 5 position is not the solution to the crisis. “The international community and the UN in particular need to facilitate a referendum to ascertain the will of the people of Kashmir.” And that, she said, is the permanent solution to the crisis that has been simmering for over seven decades.

 

“A plebiscite was proposed by the United Nations and is urged by Pakistan. There is no solution but that,” stressed Dr. Wizarat.

India, the foreign policy expert said, had agreed to it and must fulfill its promise.

In conclusion the report states that Kashmir is less stable than it was before Modi government revoked the region’s semi-autonomous status, and drastically changed its constitutional, political, territorial and economic status.

“By unliterally scrapping the core of its social contract with the Himalayan region, and forcibly suppressing local dissent, New Delhi has further undercut its ability to reach out to disgruntled Kashmiris and likely pushed more youngsters to opt for the gun,” the International Crisis Group cautioned in its report.

“In the absence of direct channels of communication between India and Pakistan, risks of a regional conflict will continue to mount,” the report warned.