Worsening US-China relations

It is important to see whether economic cooperation triumphs or if politics and geopolitics gain upper hand

In recent weeks, the China-US relations have been badly mauled by an acrimonious war of words, expulsion of journalists, sanctions, counter-sanctions and tit-for-tat consulate closures. Things took an ugly turn when the United States ordered the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas. China swiftly responded by directing the United States to shut down its consulate in Chengdu, Sichuan. The Chinese consulate’s closure is an ominous diplomatic incident and carries an enormous symbolic value. It reflects the deterioration of the diplomatic infrastructure that the two countries had laboriously built over the years.

Two unholy trinities of issues seem to be driving the current escalation. The first one consists of: 1) the Trump administration’s failure to control Covid-19 pandemic, which is wreaking havoc in many US cities; 2) the vitriolic divisiveness engendered by the upcoming US presidential election wherein China figures conspicuously; and, 3) China’s territorial claims and military posturing in the South China Sea. The second one comprises: i) growing economic competition, signified by an intense trade war between the two countries; ii) a multi-dimensional technology rivalry; and, iii) the United States’ blistering criticism of Chinese policies in Taiwan, Hong Kong and elsewhere.

The Chinese do not stand to gain anything politically from this battle of the titans. However, as the 2020 presidential election looms on the horizon, the US can elicit multiple benefits from this confrontation. It portrays Mr Trump as a tough president — someone who is not afraid of confronting a tenacious global power. His focus on China can obfuscate domestic issues like the worrisome Covid-19 pandemic, the smouldering racial divide and the sharp economic downturn the United States is experiencing. It can even reinvigorate his nationalist support base.

If one contextualises the conflict in ideological terms, it would appear that it fits in well with President Trump’s hardcore American nationalism and the ideological undercurrents of his politics. This was echoed by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in his now-famous speech at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in Yorba Linda, California, on July 23, 2020. Employing searing Cold War rhetoric, he stated that “if we don’t act now, ultimately the Communist Party of China will erode our freedoms and subvert the rules-based order that our societies have worked so hard to build. If we bend the knee now, our children’s children may be at the mercy of the CCP, whose actions are the primary challenge today in the free world.”

The conflict is also being fueled to disrupt China’s stunning rise as an economic powerhouse. The intention is to make it difficult for Beijing to beat the United States in the economic arena. Ironically, despite the implicit competition, economics and trade could salvage bilateral ties; but for that to happen, politics must first be reined in. The United States, however, frequently frames its political policies in legislative terms. This makes it very difficult to roll them back when required. In this case too, a flurry of US legislation has matched its many diatribes against China. The Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019 that reconfigures the gamut of US-Taiwan relations, the Taiwan Travel Act of 2018 that allows high-level US and Taiwanese officials to visit each other’s countries, the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 (HKHRDA) that empowers the United States to impose sanctions against China and Hong Kong for allegedly coercive administrative actions in Hong Kong, could be cited as examples in this regard. The TAIPEI Act is particularly provocative as China considers it an attempt to acknowledge Taiwan as a “nation state” in violation of the “One China Principle”.

There is no denying the fact that the situation is precarious. A lot depends on who wins the November election. It would also be important to see whether economic cooperation triumphs or if hardcore politics and geopolitics gain the upper hand. It is a slippery slope, and all concerned must tread carefully.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 4^th, 2020.

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