Post pandemic positives?

There is an opportunity in every crisis. Great crises are said to bring profound social change. The plague that struck Europe in the 14^th century is believed to mark the end of Middle Ages and the beginning of the Renaissance.

Let us, therefore, try to look ahead at the positives of Covid-19 which might ultimately come out of the human and economic tragedy we are currently facing.

A detailed discussion on this subject is needed to identify ways in which we might take advantage of these positives and improve our physical and economic health after the pandemic is gone, if at all.

One such positive is the expansion of cash transfers to the poor under programmes like BISP and Ehsaas. These have underscored the way the most destitute among us are benefitting from access to the country’s formal financial system. Some of these accounts are being provided by non-bank intermediaries offering digital payments. But the crisis is also seemingly pushing mainstream banks to compete with free services to customers at the base of socioeconomic pyramid.

And already there is significantly greater investment in hospitals. It’s impossible at this point in time to give even an approximate estimate of expenditure the government is making on the health sector, but thanks to the pandemic it has already gone up many times more than what we have been spending on it over the last many decades. Hospital beds have increased manifold and the number of Intensive Care Units (ICUs) in hospitals have also increased markedly. The availability of ventilators has also improved notably.

Also, currently there is a greater use of information and communication technology (ICT) and digitalisation in the country as companies and individuals have been adapting to virtual tools to carry out activities previously done face-to-face. However, it has also exposed the gap in access to ICTs in Pakistan. Most of our students either do not have a broadband connection at home or do not have a computer or tablet to connect.

Fifty-five per cent Pakistanis do not own a personal mobile/smartphone, whereas 9% report having never used one. Only 20% Pakistanis claim to have used a smartphone. Almost twice as many females (74%) than males (35%) do not own a mobile/smartphone as per Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement and Gallup Pakistan.

Investments in ICTs (personware, hardware and software) are, therefore, urgently needed, by the public and private sectors, as it will help revive the economy and contribute to the environment by reducing transportation needs.

The pandemic has highlighted the time we waste in travelling, not to mention the economic costs associated with it. Video conferencing technology is now a more acceptable and useful substitute. It is believed that this way we will have more efficient and cost-effective meetings with colleagues, clients and suppliers.

Over the last four months or so it has been the public sector alone that had come to the rescue of the citizens threatened by Covid-19. The rescue work is continuing as efficiently as one could expect from a public sector known for its corruption and inefficiencies. Still, it has been there performing a great job and amid the crisis, this state apparatus has been seen as a source of solutions to the consequences a large shock. Indeed, the public sector has responded rapidly on a number of fronts, from public health to the preservation of incomes for households, and offered a lifeline of support to small businesses.

This will be a positive legacy because the public sector is indispensable when it comes to externalities and other market failures, and typically has a longer horizon to plan than private agents. In the context of solutions to problems as diverse as climate change and inequality, the state is certainly needed.

Because of the reduced traffic a significant reduction of carbon dioxide and other polluting emissions is also expected. Also, there have been a number of positives because of Covid-19-forced enhanced family life. Families have become more cohesive and understanding among members has enhanced considerably.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 18^th, 2020.

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