Foreign intervention in Libya

Almost a decade after the long-time ruler Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in a Nato-backed uprising in Libya, the major North African oil producing country is yet to witness any lull in the prickly civil war, as an intense domestic strife assisted by several international governments continues to drive the nation into a sheer hullabaloo.

Even though the states involved in deadly internal conflict have endorsed the UN calls to end the foreign intervention and cease infighting between the two warring parties, the Government of National Accord (GNA) of Fayez Al Sarraj and Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Khalifa Haftar, the fierce battle to control the torn-up land is far from over.

Bolstered by recent gains in Tarhouna, Sharara and Tripoli the GNA forces are fighting to push its rival out of Al Jufra and Sirte, the gateway to Haftar’s stronghold in the east. Sarraj, with renewed support from Turkey, now seeks to “liberate” Libya from the renegade General, who is backed by Egypt, Russia and the UAE.

Latest clashes emerged after a UN mission in Libya said that both groups were fully engaged in the third round of 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) talks. The mission called on them to further de-escalate to prevent additional civilian casualties and new waves of displacement.

Notwithstanding the announcement, resumption of fight sternly threatens the UN-brokered peace dialogue. Earlier, the LNA had undermined talks over its renewed achievements and veiled aegis from the US. Now, the GNA is pursuing the same tactics to acquire leverage before start of the peace process.

Meanwhile, Ankara’s conditional support for a political solution — while dismissing the Egyptian proposal and reaffirmation the GNA would continue fighting to seize the coastal city of Sirte and Jufra air base — elevates risks to the likelihoods of any successful peace effort.

Turkish military intervention in Libya, while buttressing support for the GNA through deploying soldiers, drones and fighters from Syria, is aimed at seeking a sweeping control on vast energy reserves in the country and eastern Mediterranean. A last year maritime delimitation deal between Ankara and Tripoli, to create an exclusive economic zone from its southern to Libyan northeast coast, described Turkish profound interests in the region’s strategic assets.

Ankara’s signing of the treaty stoked tensions with Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, France and the UAE and in a joint statement on May 11, they sharply condemned Turkish offensive moves. Turkey also criticised the declaration and fired back at Cyprus and Greece for “relying on irrelevant non-regional actors”.

Now the Erdogan administration is quickly pressing ahead to gain an overwhelming control on GNA government. Last month, it announced plans to begin oil exploration within three to four months and deploy the Fatih ship to hold its first drilling operation in the Black Sea, reiterating to send its new Kanuni ship to the strategic zone.

The importunity not to commit an engagement in Libya and eastern Mediterranean by Ankara could invoke disturbances and threaten any long-lasting truce between the Libyan contending sides. As its gamble to militarily intervene in Tripoli is coming to fruition, the sporadic success can lead Turkey to become more aggressive.

Last week, Turkish officials said that its air force and navy conducted joint military drills in the Mediterranean Sea. The manoeuvres were clearly a show of power and shined light on Turkey’s long-term ambitions. The contemporary events coincided with a drama in the Mediterranean when a Turkish vessel, purportedly carrying weapons to Libya, prohibited an inspection of a new European Union (EU) naval mission, Operation Irini.

While Turkey tightens its grip in Libya and eastern Mediterranean, the only thing that threatens to fizzle out in Libya over the long-winded foreign involvement is peace. As hard-pressed by Ankara, the GNA marches deep into the strong footholds of Haftar but faces a fleshy resistance, the bloody faceoff would push further back any peace prospects in the hapless country.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 21^st, 2020.

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