Authoritarianism versus coronavirus

While Covid-19 has effectively brought the whole world to a standstill, there are still some elements which are not undifferentiated from pre-pandemic times. Pictures of a dead Yemeni girl, images of rockets landing near the site of the American oil company in Southern Iraq and reports of cross shelling in Libya are all making parallel rounds on Twitter. The usual order of the day has not changed for some.

A look at the Worldometer’s coronavirus updates shows that the Middle East region, barring Iran and Turkey, has been the least impacted by coronavirus so far. Yemen shows no cases at all. This of course raises a question on the authenticity of the data that authoritarian governments in the Middle East are releasing. Even the World Health Organization (WHO) has stated that the Middle Eastern states need to offer more information about the number of coronavirus cases they have detected in order to help contain the spread. Hardly a week later, authorities in Egypt banned a Guardian reporter on charges of misreporting, after she published an article where scientific study showed that Egypt was likely to experience more coronavirus cases than were being officially disclosed.

All the above brings forth question on the underreporting prevalent in this region. One reason could be that the authoritarian regimes have always relied on what Samuel Huntington termed as “negative legitimacy”. This means that these governments rely on the support they initially enjoyed by showcasing that they were different from the turmoil or the colonial domination they had replaced when they first came to power. In a time where democracy presupposes legitimation, they have to work hard to meet popular expectations. Or else they must resort to instilling fear in the populace. After the Arab Spring in 2011, many governments would opt for the former. In conjunction, decreasing global demand for oil had many Arab states look for other sources of revenue. However, the ongoing pandemic has brought many projects such as the DubaiExpo2020 and even some projects of the Saudi Vision 2030 to a complete halt. At this point, if the authorities start relaying official statistics on the coronavirus cases in their countries, it might cause an all-out panic. One which they might not be able to stop.

A second reason could be that in countries like Libya, Syria and Iraq, the powers-that-be are more concerned with seizing as many resources as they can under the cover of the world being preoccupied with containing the pandemic. They boast of the ‘this too shall pass’ mentality and are more invested in packaging as many economic assets in the meantime. Hence, for them healthcare is not a priority. Recently, a Syrian official was said to have praised the Syrian Army for disinfecting the country from the virus as it had done so with “all kinds of germs previously”. In Libya, according to the Unite Nations, the country’s healthcare system has already collapsed. In spite of this, the fighting between the governments in Tripoli and Tobruk has only gotten worse. Another example is how on March 31, the United Arab Emirates suddenly decided to make amends with their former ally, Syria. Many thought the pandemic had encouraged Mohammed bin Zayed to break the nearly nine-year silence. The mirage was short-lived when just a few days later, the UAE offered Assad $3 billion to break the ceasefire in Idlib and strike Turkish troops.

Covid-19 could be the singular opportunity for Arab regimes to set aside their differences, overcome political divisions and collaborate with one another to contain the spread of the virus. However, this would mean accepting and taking responsibility for their actions. A tall order, since this notion has always been unflattering to the Arab psyche till now.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 13^th, 2020.

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