Spike in cases

From one coronavirus-infected case on February 26, Pakistan took 29 days to reach one thousand. It then took a week to take the toll to 2,000 patients and another five days to take it to 3,000. But with just 3 days lapsing, the toll reached 4,000. The figures, presented by Sindh government’s spokesperson Murtaza Wahab, show that the country has entered the exponential-growth phase. The next few days and weeks are, thus, feared to pile on the agony. This steep surge in the number of known cases of the lethal virus — standing at 4,183 as of April 8 and having resulted in 58 deaths — is enough to set the alarm bells ringing. What makes the numbers even more alarming is that the number of tests conducted in the country so far only totalled 39,183 tests till yesterday, with the current testing capacity standing at 3,088 per 24 hours. And this means that nearly 10 per cent of those tested have returned positive.

Social distancing and testing — apart from personal cleanliness — are the measures prescribed to avoid the contagion, of course in the absence of an anti-virus. While our government — according to the de facto health minister, Zafar Mirza — plans to raise its testing capacity to something around 20,000 per day in about a week’s time, it has so far avoided imposing social distancing on the people through a strict curfew-like lockdown, instead trying to achieve the goal only through teaching and preaching. Well, a cash-strapped government can hardly afford to opt for an all-closed or even for a stricter lockdown, though it is turning out to be extremely necessary given the recent spike in the coronavirus cases. Even though the government plans to open up a few industries in a bid to deal with the economic impact of the coronavirus and ease pressure on itself as regards catering to a large out-of-work segment of the population, the plan is set to conflict with its social distancing policy.

The government thus finds itself stuck in a conundrum and appears working hard towards managing a fine balance between the two.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 9^th, 2020.

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