Alarming projections

While authorities need to ensure lockdown measures are abided, it’s for people also to cooperate with the authorities

The coronavirus projections about Pakistan are alarming — more than 50,000 Covid-19 patients by the end of April, with 2,392 in critical conditions and needing intensive care, 7,024 serious and 41,482 with mild symptoms requiring home isolation. The projections — submitted before the Supreme Court on April 4 in the form of a report prepared by the Ministry of National Health Services, Regulation and Coordination — are based on the trends of the pandemic in other countries. The report does not say anything on the number of fatalities feared. But 52 deaths from 3,520 cases as of April 6 do give an idea. With every 3,520 cases producing 52 deaths, some 50,000 cases can be calculated to result in 738 deaths. Given that we have already been in the exponential growth phase, the numbers over another one month or so could be scary — simply beyond our handling capacity.

Even though, according to the ministry’s report, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Pakistan after 35 days of its outbreak remains low as compared to the numbers in neighbouring Iran and European countries, there is no room for complacency. All of us — the government, the law enforcement authorities, and the people in general — must be braced for the worst. While the authorities need to ensure that lockdown measures are abided by the people, it’s for the people also to cooperate with the authorities and be compliant as much as possible. The authorities must also ensure all necessary facilities for our doctors and paramedical staff. While these frontline fighters need to be armed the teeth to fight the deadly virus, we are not even able to provide them with personal protective equipment, forcing the young doctors in Quetta to go on a strike. The situation is still not out of control, as the ministry’s report presented in the top court also suggests. A stich in time saves nine. 

Published in The Express Tribune, April 7^th, 2020.

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