Unpredictable consequences

The Covid-19 pandemic has been the focus of the entire interconnected world. The threats and dimensions of this disease are not entirely known, including its transmission methods and its potential to re-emerge in waves like the 1918 Spanish flu which lasted from January 1918 to December 1920.

Contagious and transmissible diseases do not respect any borders. Globalisation has aided in the rapid spread of this disease and the rise of the social media has escalated the flow of information together with the conspiracy theories. The Covid-19 created jitters around the world. It encompassed a number of countries, and each of the social strata of the population. Its dramatic speed has disrupted lives, communities and businesses worldwide. The French President while addressing the nation declared, “We are at war.” With a call for social responsibility, he proclaimed, “We fight neither against an army nor against another nation, but the enemy is there, invisible, elusive and advancing.” Italy, with the highest death toll, had Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte calling it the most difficult crisis since World War II and closing all non-essential factories. Boris Johnson declared that the coronavirus is the biggest threat the country has faced for decades. All over the world, we are seeing the devastating impact of this invisible killer. In America, calls are being made akin to the 9/11 commission.

Thomas Friedman, in his article, created new terms: “B.C. — Before Corona” and “A.C. — After Corona”. We still need time to see how the AC world would materialise, but for now the United States’ response towards Covid-19 has been described as “off the cuff” with conflicting statements between the President and his advisers and even claims of the pharmaceutical drug chloroquine phosphate being the cure for this ailment. President Trump has overemphasised on the prospective therapeutic effects of this drug which has been on pharmacy shelves for decades for the treatment of malaria. Incidentally, the Food and Drug Administration Authority (FDA) was in the process of setting up a large clinical trial to evaluate the suitability of the drug to heal corona patients.

This is an unprecedented crisis, a situation which has tested the ability of the public health systems and the capacity of the countries to work with shared resolve. Concerted efforts by world leaders is missing to blunt the crisis. It appears to be individual effort, with European Union countries closing their borders instead of associating with coordinated actions. The United Nations Security Council meeting was not convened. The World Health Organization (WHO) provided useful guidance but a clearly established leadership role was missing to this health predicament.

Serious questions are being raised about the American leadership’s role in these times. The world was expecting the US to mobilise the world, call nations to action and set the agenda to overcome the crisis. Being rather exclusively involved to shield America from Covid-19, President Trump detached himself from the global arena. He was intent in calling the coronavirus “the Chinese virus”, insisting that he was doing so because China had accused the American military for being the source of the outbreak.

China concealed the situation during the early critical days but China’s recovery from Covid-19 gave Europe hope as it sent humanitarian response teams to the affected areas. This provided Beijing an opportunity to reposition itself as a responsible global leader during a crisis. Beijing also dispatched medical teams to Iran, along with test kits and ventilators. Pakistan received 450,000 facemasks, including 50,000 N-95 masks from China. The second phase of the shipment to Islamabad includes 2,000 ventilators and 1.5 million testing kits.

Within a few months of China being called an authoritarian incubator of the pandemic, it changed its perception to a responsible global leader.

China enforced the policy of isolation in Wuhan and extended it to other cities because there was no remedial cure in sight. Western countries were late to implement the concept of social distancing, initially confident in their advance healthcare system and their expertise. Ultimately, all countries including Italy, Spain, France and England had to ask people to work from home and subsequently restrict their movement.

Countries tried to emulate South Korea for its methods of controlling the coronavirus. French and Swedish leaders called President Moon Jae-in to request details on his country’s effective measures. Appreciation also came from the WHO Chief who urged other countries to apply the South Korean model. Incidentally, South Korea was able to deal with this situation without limiting the movement of people. The authorities in Seoul controlled the source of infection which was a place of worship.

The advice of epidemiologists and public health experts is reigning national decisionmakers. But questions are also being raised that whether the method of cure is worse than the disease. IMF has predicted a global recession with 80 countries asking for its help to cope with the consequences. Trump emphatically stated, “America will again and soon be open for business, very soon, a lot sooner than three or four months. We’re not going to let the cure be worse than the problem.” The US economy appears to be shrinking by an annual rate of 30% in the next quarter and the unemployment rate is expected to jump to 13%. Wall Street economists are questioning whether the government has amplified the gravity of the situation which is already causing deep anguish to businesses and workers.

Predominantly, South Asian countries struggled with their political leadership which was “politically competing” on the strategy and implementation methods to fight Covid-19. In Pakistan, unless a dramatic development is observed, discussions included whether the “half- hearted” confinement in Taftan actually delivered the required results. The resultant effect on the economy is immeasurable as we are not sure how long Covid-19 will continue and whether there is a possibility of a relapse. In the absence of a national consensus, the decisions apparently being taken by the government do not truly reflect the concerns of the entire society, particularly the management of macro and micro economy to the contentment of the population.

Coronavirus will force our government to re-evaluate the national priorities for cleanliness, sanitation and public health and create a welfare state which can take the responsibility for the health of every citizen.

With hand sanitisers and the national leadership in short supply, this crisis has been able to bring forward some great strengths in societies. Medical and paramedial staff, charity organisations, NGOs, business leaders, philanthropists, and media groups have taken the initiative to mobilise, guide and enlighten the people under their sphere of influence.

Questions that remain unanswered about Covid-19 are the environmental factors, such as temperature which may affect its spread, the different response of the population to infection and whether the infected will develop immunity to this disease.

This pandemic has exposed various fault lines. Pre-emptive decisions with comprehensive remedial steps are necessary. At this crucial stage, we must remember that even a small error in navigation can have huge consequences.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 4^th, 2020.

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