The future of trade in post Covid-19 Pakistan

The world is currently gripped with the hysteria of Covid-19, a coronavirus that attacks without prejudice of rich or poor, White House or shantytowns, obese Americans or starved Yemenis, able-bodied thoroughbreds or old timers awaiting heavenly abode. This media frenzy and mass panic of a pandemic boils down to a simple fact that everyone wants to go to heaven, but no one wants to die!

In the middle of all the chaos is the meltdown of state revenue pillars of business and trade, which is destabilising politicians and their policy plans. We are currently witnessing catastrophic generational events firsthand of dwindling stock markets, a crumbling aviation industry, empty supermarkets, diminishing tourism, a hold on wars, restrictions in movement, zombie apocalypse, and wartime contingency plans, or in naïve terms, the situation is analogous to that of Occupied Kashmir.

To understand the impact of this new global virus spread, one must follow the trail of evidence it leaves behind. The universal claim is that China, with its consumption of exotic meats, caused genetic mutations under atmospheric conditions resulting in a lung-affecting virus that transmits through contact or fluid exchange in humans.

Many conspiracy theories have emerged as a result of this, which leads to questions such as: China has been consuming exotic meats for centuries, so why now? This insatiable lust for such meats is spread across the entire country, so why did the epidemic start in Wuhan and not Shanghai? Why not in other parts of the world like the Koreas, Japan, Africa, or Latin Americas, wherefrom horse meat to pufferfish is a dinner delight? Why did Italy become the scond epicentre and not Germany, which has more migration than any other country in Europe? Why did the World Health Organization (WHO) wait for three months to declare the outbreak a global concern and then a pandemic? Is the mortality rate the measure of that? In that case, why are malaria or world hunger not pandemics? Is it mother Earth seeking revenge for human abuse? Or a biological weapon gone wrong? Too many questions remain unanswered.

The questions actually worth asking are: what are the real reasons for this human civilisation-ending virus? What is its etymology? What are its control measures? What are the barriers to its vaccine? Why is its transmission limited to mammals and not reptiles? How is it curable in some but not in others?

For us as Pakistanis, we are at the pinnacle of a red alert as we share land borders with China and Iran, are medically unequipped with ventilators, tracers and trackers, have a shortage of specialised health professionals, and have no access to any antidotes, etc. It is worth pondering that with Italy’s 60 million population quarantined, how is it that only 1,200 cases have been reported in Pakistan where we have a population of over 220 million adjacent to the Asian Covid-19 epicentre? Is it the Will of God? Or are we too Islamically pious to not be affected? An educated guess is that a significant portion of our population is already affected, and we are just not aware. Even China’s recent claim of no local transmission cases of Covid-19 sounds unbelievable, given that the daily infected rates are rising globally.

Using this ignorance as bliss model, Pakistan can masterly position itself in the international market as a major goods supplier in the long run. China’s manufacturing is crippled at present, with not only the factories being shut and investor confidence at an all-time low, but most importantly, the consumer trust in Chinese goods has vapourised. From automakers to garment producers, the entire trading community is shunning Chinese manufacturing. It would take years before China can restore its supply-demand equilibrium.

In this time of national emergency and contingency action planning, Prime Minister Imran Khan should also establish a comprehensive futuristic roadmap to the commerce policy with utmost urgency. This policy’s sole purpose should be of how Pakistan’s exports can conduct a hostile takeover of the Chinese market share after the corona crisis is over and what planning is needed to acquire 10%, 20% to 50% of that market share. A phase-wise planning of government-assisted financial injection into primary (raw material) and secondary (manufacturing) industries with existing infrastructure as a first push. Subsequently, more advanced tertiary (services) and quaternary (intellectual services) industry sectors to be made available in the second phase.

The plan should allow for special economic allowances, provide bureaucratic bypass to investors for ease of doing business, allow swift banking credit to entrepreneurs, give import duty exemptions on raw materials and machinery and provide export tax-exemptions. Similarly, a sales force should also be set up with the diplomatic community acting as business development managers, overseas Pakistanis as promotors and media centres as marketing engines. The shortfall in international oil pricing as a result of the Saudi-Russia production war also provides a cushion to achieve this business coup d’état.

Such a strategy would allow for post-coronavirus trade partnerships to be set up, the country would open up economically in the long-term, unemployment would decline and skill development and professional training would increase. If Pakistan can achieve the above at even a 10% confidence level, we will be able to inject $50 billion into the national exchequer per year. Hence, it is time for the government to be pound wise and penny foolish.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 28^th, 2020.

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