The spoilers

In the very first step toward peace, the United States and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, or as they are more commonly known, the Taliban, signed a deal earlier this month.

The agreement, which appears to be vulnerable, will eventually end the longest conflict in Afghanistan. Under the accord, hailed as the greatest opportunity for peace, the United States promised to reduce the presence of its troops stationed in Afghanistan. In return, the Taliban promised to reduce violence in the country. But the very foundation of this truce seems to be shaking after last week’s violence, including an attack on a political gathering.

The country’s chief executive, Abdullah Abdullah, who also happens to be President Ashraf Ghani’s rival, narrowly escaped,but dozens were wounded.  The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the attack, making it the first spoiler that could derail the fragile peace process in the country.

On the other hand, with the intra-Afghan talks between the nation’s authorities and the Taliban, inching closer, things are not looking promising. The government led by President Ghani rejected a prisoner exchange deal that was to take place before the start of the talks,exposing the president’s own intentions to derail the process.

In what appears to be a chain reaction to Ghani’s decision, the Taliban increased attacks on Afghan security forces. And in return, US warplanes bombed the militants. By rejecting the prisoner swap deal days before the crucial internal talk, Ghani, who seems to be on the losing end, has scuttled the chance for peace in Afghanistan.

The president, who has no legitimacy, is aware that if the peace process survives all the spoilers and the test of time, he will eventually have to step down to allow the legitimate stakeholders in Afghanistan to cobble together a plan for the future of Afghanistan – a future that has no role for Ghani.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 9^th, 2020.

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