Pakistan will have to position its cards very cautiously
KHAIRPUR: The result of the Afghan elections that was held in September last year was declared on Tuesday.
According to these results President Ashraf Ghani once again emerged victorious. But with the declaration of his victory a new crisis has encircled the already war-ridden Afghanistan due to President Ghani’s chief political rival Abdullah Abdullah’s disagreement to these results. Abdullah Abdullah, along with leaders of major opposition parties, has vowed to make a pluralistic government.
These crises are engulfing Afghanistan at such a decisive time. We have seen remarkable progress in the Afghan talks where the Taliban and the US have announced the reduction in violence, which would be followed by an agreement for the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and eventually kick-off Intra-Afghan talks.
But with this electoral announcement, the already existing political cleavage appears to widen, as such fragmentations in the power corridors of Kabul will certainly affect any future political settlement since this announcement created ambiguity of who will represent the Kabul government in Intra-Afghan negotiations.
The Kabul government already doesn’t have control of Afghan territory except for some urban centres and this kind of open confrontation among Afghan politicians has further weakened the position the Kabul government before Intra-Afghan talks.
On contrary, the Taliban seems to pose a united front. Their confidence can be seen on the battle field against Afghan government militias. They will certainly claim the US withdrawal as a victory. Reportedly, Taliban are ruling swath of territories in Afghanistan, therefore the current political chessboard appears to give them leverage over Kabul. This will help them to drive out a hard bargain during Intra-Afghan talks.
Bringing Taliban to table was an easy task for Pakistan but the real challenge starts from here. Pakistan will have to position its cards very cautiously. Washington is already taking the best advantages of Pakistan’s fragile economic outlook by using different means like FATF and IMF to get Pakistan’s cooperation on Afghan issue. Therefore to gain some independence in the matter we need to put our own house in order. By stabilising the economy and taking care of the FATF, we can further cement our position in the current Afghan scenario.
Adnan Shah
Published in The Express Tribune, February 22nd, 2020.
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