Major earthquake expected in Pakistan, says expert

Published: July 18, 2011
DG Geological Survey says list of cities under threat has been handed over to respective district governments.

DG Geological Survey says list of cities under threat has been handed over to respective district governments.

ISLAMABAD: The Director General of Pakistan Geological Survey, Dr Imran Ahmed Khan says an earthquake of a magnitude of 6.5 or higher might hit Pakistan this year, Express News reported on Monday.

Dr Khan, who was briefing the Standing Committee on Petroleum, said major cities of Pakistan were located on the fault line, which also crosses the centre of Margalla Hills.

The director general said the list of cities under threat has been handed over to the respective district governments.

He added that the government had been informed of the Attabad landslide four months before the incident happened.

He further that that climatic change is melting glaciers at a faster rate.

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Reader Comments (43)

  • Jul 18, 2011 - 5:16PM

    Haan! How can he predict earthquakes!! And how can he predict landslides four months before it happens? He must be strong with the darkside!


  • Nida Butt
    Jul 18, 2011 - 5:30PM

    Very disturbing indeed. May Allah save us ad forgive us for our sins


  • Zeeshan
    Jul 18, 2011 - 5:37PM

    his is ridiculous as of now there is no technology or technique exist in the world which may predict expected earth quake! scientist and geologist have done many experiments but apparently all were failure…. however may God keep us safe!


  • Amer
    Jul 18, 2011 - 5:51PM

    I really didn’t know that they could predict earthquakes for the whole year. This is very interesting!


  • Zohair
    Jul 18, 2011 - 5:59PM

    may be because he is the DG of Pakistan Gelogical Survey…..Geology (from the Greek γῆ, gê, “earth” and λόγος, logos, “study”) is the science that comprises the study of the solid Earth and the processes by which it is shaped and changed. (Wikipedia)


  • Tanoli.
    Jul 18, 2011 - 6:03PM

    what hapening is not a earth quak may be just quak quak.


  • Chris Cork
    Jul 18, 2011 - 6:21PM

    Earthquakes no, not possible but landslides yes, especially those of the type that formed the Attabad lake. Local people had been observing the spread of cracks along the already well-known Attabad fault line for years, and they had been noted by a university dpt in the UK which has a geologist specialising in the mechanics of landslides – and he and the local government rightly predicted the Attabad event. There are two other similar events in the offing, one of which I have observed at close quarters in the last fortnight. It is on the other side of the river directly across from the Rakaposhi Viewpoint on the Karakorum Highway. Thro binoculars I was able to observe the slippage that had occurred since my last visit in 2009, and it is clear that the slope is critical, moving downwards and will eventually drop into the river with the same effect as at Attabad. The National Geographic Society have put a camera up there to monitor the situation. Gonna be a biggie when it goes, which will probably be the next time it either has significant rain on it or it goes thro a freeze-thaw cycle (as at Aattabad). So earthquakes no, slides very definitely yes.


  • Sanaullah
    Jul 18, 2011 - 7:16PM

    What about forecasts about Attabad Lake by FWO and other Experts “this dam will not resist the water pressure and will be washed away”. THE DAM IS STILL THERE.


  • Chris Cork
    Jul 18, 2011 - 7:34PM

    Yes, it is till there and unlikely to fall down or see significant erosion because the spillway constructed by the army and FWO takes sufficient pressure OFF the dam to make it unlikely it will spontaneously collapse. While I was up there I heard of plans to reduce the level of the lake by fifty feet and re-expose the road and the newly-built Chinese bridge, which would obviate the need to build a new road around the block. It makes good sense but it is not going to be an ‘instant solution.’


  • Muhammad Kashif
    Jul 18, 2011 - 7:57PM

    Gentlemen , just check out HAARP Project on any search engine or youtube and you will get to know amazing facts.

    Please post it as it may be useful for Pakistanis


  • Syed Hussein El-Edroos
    Jul 18, 2011 - 8:24PM

    @Chris Cork: Where exactly on the KKH would the landslide take place?
    Will it block the KKH?


  • XX
    Jul 18, 2011 - 8:32PM

    Note to sane readers:
    Anyone who says that it is not possible to ascertain that there is a relatively high possibility of an earthquake to occur at a certain place during a certain timeframe has never been a student of geology or geophysics.


  • treat me nice ill be ur doc one day
    Jul 18, 2011 - 9:44PM

    dumb heads they can certainly predict earthquakes by measuring the tension building up in the fault lines!!when the tension becomes so great it is dissipated in the form of energy!!!he is probably saying that the tension is building up in the south asian tectonic plate which is moving up in collision course with the euroasian plate!!the south asian plate mves underneath the euroasian plate at a rate of 1cm per year!!this is accumulated as tension


  • Rohail
    Jul 18, 2011 - 10:32PM

    Run!!!!!! :D


  • Zoobish
    Jul 18, 2011 - 10:36PM

    I wonder how lifeless we people actually are that on a weird report of some “expert”, we’ve got 9 comments, 51 tweets and 137 facebook sharings? There’s absolutely no method of predicting earthquakes. Get over it peopleRecommend

  • shafiq chughtai
    Jul 18, 2011 - 10:43PM

    @Chris Cork:
    regarding the other land slide about which u mentioned the installation of camera, what will happen if that landslide takes place.will there be any water deprivation or human life loss?can the aftermath of such landslide be utilized for the advantage of humans ?


  • Long Standing
    Jul 18, 2011 - 10:53PM

    Is that an advance notice to USAID, China, IMF and World Bank to keep their aid purses ready well in time?

    Or is it yet another CIA/MOSSAD/RAW conspiracy to instill fear and trepidation.

    Or is it because India is building many dams….

    Or is it because of the population explosion in Pakistan that the earth is just not able to bear any further burden.

    Or is it the end of world…… Help!!!Recommend

    Jul 18, 2011 - 10:56PM

    Never heard of prediction date for an earthquake given by any geologist so far but Dr Khan might have got a direct communication from HIM for this unusual prediction. God bless both India and Pakistan.


  • Hasan Naveed
    Jul 19, 2011 - 12:46AM

    May ALLAH forgive our sins and bad deeds and protect Pakistan…Ameen
    May our ALLAH ALMIGHTY protect all of us from such kind of circumstances…
    Ameen, Sum Ameen


  • Jul 19, 2011 - 6:47AM

    In answer to various questions…no the latent slide I saw is on the other side of the river to KKH and even though it will be massive I cannot see it blocking the road. What few people lived on or beneath the slide slope moved long ago so I think large loss of life is unlikely. I do not know the name of the actual area that will slide, but it is opposite Rakaposhi View Point which is a popular stopping point for buses trucks and tourists and is about 10 mins from the turn-off for Minapin.


  • Venky
    Jul 19, 2011 - 7:36AM

    I think he is throwing something in the air, so that if at all that happens, he can take credit for it.
    I also would like him to publish a paper and send it to Nobel price committee so that they could consider him for the next year Nobel prize on Geology.


  • Sanjith Menon
    Jul 19, 2011 - 8:37AM

    Ha ha , it like saying you will die one day?


  • mansoor hussain bhatti
    Jul 19, 2011 - 8:53AM

    He may be right because he did not basically predict an earth quack…He is just saying that major cities of Pakistan are on fault line especially Margalla hills ……so we cannot say he is wrong because we have already faced a major earth quack


  • mine
    Jul 19, 2011 - 10:31AM

    Earthquakes may not be predicted but the presence of certain geological features increases the chances of earthquake. One such major feature is a fault line.


  • Saleem
    Jul 19, 2011 - 11:06AM

    Attention All Pakistanis:

    There has not been invented such a device so far for predicting earthquake.Japan # 1 country in Technological Advancement was not able to do so.

    The country is going through the management crisis Power Shortages ,Decreasing Revenues , Heavy Corruption etc etc.

    This is another example of irresponsibility that instead of taking precautionary measures/steps , News about earthquake have been blown to fear and harass peolpe of the country.

    I would like to request everyone going through , my message is to show full faith in Allah and Quran and pray to him to safeguard our country from all kinds of natural disasters such as earthquake,flood etc because we have no more capacity to be examined anymore.


  • ali
    Jul 19, 2011 - 12:23PM

    if that was the case then los angeles would be history by now cuz geographically!…but then again,he knows more than we doRecommend

  • Ahmad M. Qamar
    Jul 19, 2011 - 12:37PM

    Well, if a scientist says that, it might happen…any time…


  • Saleem
    Jul 19, 2011 - 12:48PM

    Attention All;

    Japan being a great country on Technological advancements perspective was not able to predict the recent earthquake.There has been no invention to predict earthquake to precisely predict the earthquake.

    Pakistan is already going through managerial crisis and authorities have put themselves in ridiculous position with many matters such as War on Terror, Corruption,Target killing and poor law in order situation.

    The situation is getting from bad to worst and this news is another example of religiousness and irresponsibility by pressurizing and harassing people.Indeed the natural disasters come and go but one has to take precautionary measures and proactively manage things on red signals.Authorities have nothing to do with the same e.g Recovery from recent earthquake and flood hasnot been made yet then why authorities are harassing innocent people with such news.

    People being muslims should pray to Allah for safeguarding our country and people for such disasters as we donot have capacity to bear them anymore.

    Authorities should stop spreading such news and make smpathy on the people of the country who are already under pressure and striving to live in this era of heavy taxes,inflation and tough situation.


  • Ahmad M. Qamar
    Jul 19, 2011 - 1:01PM

    Where will the government go….??????????


  • Muhammad Rehan Zafar
    Jul 19, 2011 - 5:48PM

    Its true that landslides can be predicted well ahead of time. However, the probability of an earthquake occuring in a certain area of a certain magnitude can also be predicted. What cannot be predicted about earthquakes is when it will happen. may happen in one year or many years. May occur in form of many small earthquakes or a big one as 8th Oct as the faultlines shift.


  • Raj
    Jul 19, 2011 - 8:06PM

    So far no commentator has called it a conspiracy against Pakistan by CIA, RAW and MOSSAD..Thank you ET readers.


  • Ali
    Jul 19, 2011 - 9:42PM

    Scientists can predict that a big earthquake will hit a particular area/city (Such as Istanbul) they can even detect a pattern (every few years there was an earthquake in a different turkish city going from east to west and the pattern predicts it will eventually hit Istanbul). What thay cannot predict is the precise time, but they can predict a rough time estimate.

    Geology and science has moved on a great deal.The govt. should take his advice and make as many places earthquake proof as possible and also have emergency staff trained for an event such as this. Our country lies on a fault line so we should make preparations for these events as they will happen at some point!


  • Naveed
    Jul 20, 2011 - 2:10PM

    @Chris Cork…… aren’t by any chance the famous undercover agent in last year’s Hollywood movie..Recommend

  • Anserali Khan
    Jul 20, 2011 - 2:14PM

    It is nearly impossible to predict exact time and place of earthquake.

    Great earthquakes in the Himalaya have occurred repeatedly in the past and will continue to do so in the future. We do not know precisely when and where they will occur although in several locations one can calculate how much elastic energy is currently stored ready to drive a future earthquake.

    Northern parts of Pakistan and Baluchistan are located in seismically very active area and government should get serious about earthquake mitigation.

    There are some large NGOs in Pakistan which solely focus on disaster mitigation one of them being FOCUS Humanitarian Assistance which is part of AKDN.They did excellent work during the Attabad landslide and had also set-up Early Warning System.

    NDMA should request FOCUS and other International agencies to help them


  • pakistani
    Jul 20, 2011 - 2:45PM

    We all know that the fault line runs through various parts of pakistan and with the pressure build up the earthquake can strike. Let us not worry of when. We should be concerned to be prepared to mitigate the impact and specially casualties. We need to build right and be prepared and trained on how to respond in case such a disatser strikes.


  • Why So Serious ?
    Jul 20, 2011 - 3:23PM

    @ Chris Cork.. I’ve got only one question.. What will happen to the camera installed by the National Geographic Society in case there is a landslide ??


  • Jul 20, 2011 - 4:49PM

    The NatGeo camera, I am reliably informed is sited ‘off slide’ in an area that is not going to move. As to whether I am a famous undercover agent in a Hollywood movie…not as far as I am aware. What film did you have in mind?


  • Naveed
    Jul 21, 2011 - 12:07AM

    @Chris Cork……”UnderCover”


  • mishaal
    Jul 21, 2011 - 6:29PM

    plz tell it true??
    Earth Quake of 8.6 can Hit Pakistan in 2015 or before.


  • kapil dev
    Jul 22, 2011 - 1:55AM

    dont worry…. for the future… just wait and watch…


  • shahida
    Aug 7, 2011 - 1:49PM

    An earthquake prediction is a prediction that an earthquake of a specific magnitude will occur in a particular place at a particular time (or ranges thereof). Despite considerable research efforts by seismologists, scientifically reproducible predictions cannot yet be made to a specific day or month. However, for well-understood faults the probability that a segment may rupture during the next few decades can be estimated.


  • Asif
    Aug 9, 2011 - 2:07PM

    No one knows the future but as a nation we have to prepare ourselves for any emergency to deal with the rest leave to ALLAH PAK and pray because it changes the futures.


  • khurram shahzad
    Aug 27, 2011 - 4:10AM

    I felt that its time … due time for earthquake …. with my experience and it happened….i have an extra sense, i feel….it means that earthquake is little bit predictable….but every thing comes from heavens…because of our own deeds….yeh insan ke apnay hath ki kamai hy….


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