Modi’s opening of multiple fronts

Like US President Donald Trump, the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has opened multiple fronts at the domestic front and in the foreign policy arena. On August 5, the Indian state ventured into its ambitious drive to finally absorb India-Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IOK) by revoking Articles 370 and 35(A), which gave the occupied territory a special status. Lately, the Indian Parliament passed the Citizen Amendment Bill (CAB) which allowed religious minorities — excluding Muslims — from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan to apply for Indian citizenship if they entered India before December 31, 2014. Both acts of the Modi regime reflected Muslim bashing and resulted in protest demonstrations in several Indian cities.

The opening of multiple fronts by the BJP government reflects an absence of proper brainstorming in its top leadership to gauge the ramifications of the decisions it is undertaking, resulting in crises, political instability, chaos and violence. Within 100 days of Modi’s second term, the BJP regime revoked IOK’s special status and refused to give a second thought to an act which caused a grave crisis, particularly in the Muslim-dominated Valley of Kashmir.

Modi’s rash way of dealing with sensitive and critical issues, particularly those related to the religious identity of the minorities, needs to be analysed by considering three ground realities. First, India, a multi-cultural, multi-lingual and multi-religious country with a history of democratic institutions, secularism sand political pluralism, has today become a minefield which may explode any time. The growing confidence of the hawks within the BJP — that they can get away with unpopular decisions targeting religious minorities because their party has a decisive Hindu vote bank and an overwhelming majority in the lower house of the Parliament — is also a reality. Armed with 303 seats out of 545, the Modi regime is confident to open many fronts at the same time and successfully manage crises emanating from the revocation of Articles 370 and 35(A) and passing the most controversial CAB. The reality of political opportunism is manifested in the prevailing Indian political culture as both the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Bill and CAB sailed through Rajya Sabha, i.e. the upper house of Parliament, despite the BJP having a minority status there. It means the hawks in the rank and file of the BJP are able to seek votes from opposition members in the upper house for the passage of the bills which are being termed as anti-democratic and fascist in nature.

With the passage of CAB, two million Assamese Muslims will lose their Indian nationality rights. Six Indian states, namely, West Bengal, Punjab, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Kerala and Madhya Pradesh, have refused to adhere to CAB as for them the bill contradicts the secular and democratic credentials of the Indian Constitution. But Amit Shah, the President of the BJP and Central Home Minister, has rejected such criticism. The Indian President, who could have returned the bill to Parliament for review, has also given his approval. It means that like the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, the BJP government planned to bulldoze any opposition or impediment to the passage of both bills. Henceforth, the BJP’s growing confidence in implementing its age-old agenda of transforming India into a Hindu state cannot be overlooked.

Second, the last obstacle in the way of declaring India a Hindu state is the 42^nd Amendment to the Indian Constitution, under which the preamble of the Constitution declared India a secular state. During its election campaign, the BJP vowed to scrap that amendment. The BJP can pass a bill which will undo that amendment from the lower house as it can muster a two-thirds majority. But getting the bill passed from the upper house will be an uphill task because the BJP lacks strength there. Hence, it will need to wait two more years for elections to be held in the upper house, till when the BJP is bound to secure a two-thirds majority. Will the so-called democratic and secular forces in India prevent the BJP from scrapping the 42^nd Amendment? Or as with the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act and CAB, they will surrender? For many Indians, declaring India a Hindu state is nothing but a hype created by the media, because as long as the Constitution is secular, the BJP cannot succeed in its ambition. However, this may be wishful thinking because once the BJP has a majority in the upper house, it will revoke the 42^nd Amendment.

If Jinnah was criticised for creating Pakistan on the basis of the two-nation theory, then the BJP’s policies in its second term are nothing short of what the founders of Pakistan had suggested. When Hinduism will be declared as the state religion of India, one can expect an initiative like the Objectives Resolution, which was proclaimed by Pakistan’s Constituent Assembly in 1949, whereby the positions of president and prime minister were to be solely held by Muslims. In that case, India will have a situation where non-Hindus will not be elected to the top offices of the state and government. Finally, the failure of the opposition parties to effectively challenge the BJP’s authoritarian agenda in the garb of Hindu nationalism has enabled Modi and his hawkish team to get away with their actions. If India’s silent majority does not resist the BJP’s goal of building an authoritarian Hindu state, then they shall also be held responsible if Kashmiri Muslims and other religious minorities fall victim to a genocide.

The year 2019 can rightly be termed as an unfortunate era in Indian history because of the BJP’s success in silencing the voices of dissent and implementing its election manifesto of ending IOK’s special status, constructing the Ram temple in place of Babri Mosque and introducing CAB. The BJP is also credited with promoting opportunism and nepotism by influencing the bureaucracy, military and judiciary. That is why the Indian Supreme Court refused to annul the revocation of Article 370 and allowed Hindu nationalists to build the Ram temple. The Indian bureaucracy has been tamed and the military is willing to do the dirty job in the Muslim-dominated Valley of Kashmir by embarking on a genocide of Kashmiri Muslims, dishonouring Kashmiri women, kidnapping hundreds of children and arresting and torturing thousands of young people.

Perhaps, the Modi regime miscalculated the response — of violent protests — in India and in the world against CAB, which caused the Japanese Prime Minister to postpone his visit to New Delhi and several countries to issue travel advisories to their citizens. The postponement of the visit of the Bangladeshi interior and foreign ministers to India is also a case in point because it is Bangladesh which will suffer the most from CAB. Will the pro-Indian regime in Dhaka look the other way over New Delhi’s policy of Muslim bashing? 

Published in The Express Tribune, December 20^th, 2019.

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