As cotton output falls, country may spend $1.5b on imports

Pakistan will need to import 6m bales that will put burden on exchequer

KARACHI: Lack of research and development work, fall in profit margins of farmers and change in weather patterns have caused a drop in cotton produce in Pakistan, which may be forced to import the commodity worth $1.5 billion this year.

In a statement, Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) President Agha Shahab Ahmed Khan pointed out that keeping in view the projections of US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and other independent estimates, Pakistan's cotton production was likely to descend 19% to 8 million bales in FY20.

He expressed concern that such a dip would terribly affect exports of the textile sector because cotton was a major raw material. Khan was of the view that the low production of cotton would mean massive import of around 6 million bales, which would put a burden on the foreign exchange reserves to the tune of $1.5 billion.

"Pakistan has always targeted production of 15 million bales and has managed to achieve the goal around eight years ago," said Sindh Abadgar Board member Mahmood Nawaz Shah. "However shortly afterwards, the output began to decline because the achievement was accidental."

Heatwave destroys one-third of cotton crop in Pakistan

He explained that the target was achieved with the help of Australian Bt cotton seeds, which the farmers secretly brought to Pakistan. Bt cotton is an insect-resistant transgenic crop developed to combat bollworm - a pest that attacks the cotton crop.

With the advent of Bt cotton, pest attacks went down and the cotton crop increased by leaps and bounds in the fertile areas of Sindh and Punjab, said Shah.  Sometime later, he added, the imported seeds became localised and were multiplied due to which they lost their vigour. He elaborated that pest-resistant varieties lost their shield against insects over time and underscored the need for investing in research and development where one seed would be in production while another would be in the pipeline.

Continuing, he said another reason for the fall in cotton production was the change in global weather patterns owing to global warming as Pakistan's agriculture sector was not prepared for that. He pointed out that lower Sindh received 200 millimetres of rain in August and September 2019, which had been projected for the full year.

"Rains wreaked havoc on the ripe crop just before the beginning of picking season," he said.

He lamented that the low price offered by middlemen was also one of the factors contributing to the decline in cotton production. Middlemen pay only Rs3,000 per 40 kg in addition to keeping 2 kg extra on account of deduction for packaging material weight and moisture. "Losses due to weather and low prices have forced the farmers to think about sowing alternative crops," he said.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 14^th, 2019.

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