How Kerala defied the BJP

The Modi wave has swept across India, even making inroads for the first time in states where it has historically not been able to make much headway, including West Bengal and Odisha. Not so in Kerala, however, which is the only state where the BJP has suffered a resounding defeat. It is thus important to see what is so special about Kerala, and why this southeastern state remained immune to the ultranationalist and divisive hype which managed to propel Modi to power again, across the rest of India.

The BJP did not lose so badly in Kerala because it was not being proactive there. In fact, the BJP had been running an active campaign in Kerala and analysts were expecting it to win at least two or three seats. BJP leaders in Kerala were following their standardised Hindutva agenda that has proven to be a winning strategy elsewhere across the country.

While the BJP’s Kerala strategy was not exactly fueling anti-Muslim rhetoric, it had found another possibility for exploiting religious sentiments. The opportunity for embracing a ‘righteous’ cause in Kerala came in response to a recent Supreme Court order, which overturned the Sabarimala Temple’s ban on women between 10 and 50 (i.e. of menstruating age) from entering a hill shrine.

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh had launched agitation against the apex court’s ruling, with the BJP’s blessing. Their agitation turned violent on many occasions with RSS workers attacking women who came to pray at the temple, clashing with the police, and organising strikes. Thus, the RSS helped keep the issue in the spotlight until the general elections were held (in April and May this year).

Fortunately, however, the RSS-executed BJP strategy did not work in Kerala at all. Indian analysts have identified salient factors which have enabled Kerala to be so resilient to Modi’s appeal. While many other Indian states have a diverse demographic mix of Hindus, Christians, and Muslims as well, Kerala has additionally been a bastion of the Communist Party of India. Moreover, Kerala today has amongst the highest literacy rates in India, including among women. It has low infant and maternal mortality, and low poverty. People in Kerala are politically engaged and there is avid newspaper readership across the state. Thus, it was a state with a politically aware, diverse, and equitable population, which managed to offer the most effective rebuttal to the divisive politics of the BJP.

Women also played an important role in defeating the BJP and in standing up against the RSS in the lead up to the elections. In January 2019, women created a 385-mile long human chain (with around five million demonstrators) to resist the BJP-backed RSS campaign.

It is also interesting to note that the Communist-led Left Democratic Front has in fact lost in Kerala and it is the Congress-led United Democratic Front which has managed to win over the state instead. Observers think that voters in Kerala were being strategic and they chose the Congress-led coalition over the Communists because they knew that the former stood a better chance of defeating the BJP.

Despite the BJP defeat, these election results do pose some tough questions for the Indian left, within Kerala, and beyond. One major issue for the leftists in Kerala to ponder is how and why they have alienated the State’s minority Muslim and Christian populace.

On the other hand, the test for the Congress in Kerala, and more generally, is to go beyond offering a diluted version of the right-wing populist tactic of doling out social programmes for the poor, while replicating the BJP’s neoliberal economic blueprint and its communal and nationalist posturing (over Kashmir). If the Congress remains unable to win over minority communities and poor Hindus, Kerala will probably go back to the left, and the Congress will have little chance of taking the Centre back from the BJP, even in the next elections.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 5^th, 2019.

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