The writer is a retired lieutenant general of the Pakistan Army and a former federal secretary. He has also served as chairman of the Pakistan Ordnance Factories Board
President Ghani in his speech at the Institute of Strategic Studies emphasised the need for overcoming the past and beginning a new chapter of relationship with Pakistan. His emphasis of having a relationship between sovereign states reflected his and that of his countrymen’s sensitivity of being interfered or not being treated as sovereign. Pakistan’s leadership is now more conscious of removing this impression.
President Ghani spoke of a shared vision and the benefits that would accrue if peace returns to the region. Exploiting the potential of Karachi and Gwadar could be transformational if free flow of goods and services was made possible between Pakistan and Central Asia. Clearly, once fully developed, Gwadar would be the port of choice for Central Asian states. President Ghani mentioned the benefits of energy security and how important it is to fully benefit from the unique geography that Pakistan and Afghanistan enjoy. The materialisation of the Afghan-Pakistan-India pipeline would indeed be a major breakthrough. Afghanistan enjoys good relations with India, and President Ghani was discreet and spoke of the advantages of regional cooperation and overcoming the past. His remark that it is bad strategy if regional countries continue to repeat the mistakes of the past applied as much to the Pakistan-Afghanistan relations as it is those between Pakistan and India.
President Ghani also spoke of the potential of Herat in Afghanistan. It would flourish as a dry port once peace returns and its infrastructure is improved. Already the Central Asian states are the biggest trading partners of Afghanistan, but there is scope of far greater increase in the volume and quality of trade.
Similar possibilities of enhancing trade and communications between the Eastern and Western border exist by connecting India with Pakistan and Afghanistan by the land route. It is common knowledge that regional connectivity improves prospects of trade, commerce and tourism and builds bridges between people and reduces poverty. If Pakistani leadership has wisely promoted connectivity with China through CPEC, one expects that South Asian countries would agree to free flow of people and goods from India through Pakistan to Afghanistan and Central Asia. But this would happen if the relations between India and Pakistan move away from confrontation to cooperation.
There are other forces that are acting as a brake in facilitating regional trade and commerce. The state of railways in both Afghanistan and Pakistan needs major upgrade. Moreover, the track gauges in Afghanistan and Pakistan differ. Afghanistan being at the crossroads of Asia is surrounded by three different kinds of gauge. Bringing uniformity in the present circumstances would be very difficult considering the state of the economy of the countries and the adverse security situation in Afghanistan. Transporting goods by trucks would probably remain the best option in the foreseeable future.
The possibility of the US and the Taliban leadership reaching a peace settlement are closer today than ever before. Doubts still remain that even if this would happen Afghanistan is likely to remain torn with different extremist organisations infighting. Pakistan anticipating this had been building a wall along the Western border to reduce the spillover effect. How effective it would be, only time would tell.
President Ghani has been keen to hold national elections to give him longevity in office in the hope he would win and also to dilute the power of Taliban. These have been postponed several times and are scheduled for September this year. It is doubtful if these would take place in the current fluid situation.
John Spoke, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), in his recent report to the Congress warns, “Afghanistan will continue to grapple with multiple extremist organisations even if the United States and Taliban reach a peace settlement.” He also warns of the presence of terrorist group, the Islamic State Khorasan Group. These challenges demand that Afghanistan would need an effective security force to protect its people from internal and external threats for several years. Many astute observers of Afghanistan would endorse Spoke’s remarks, for Afghanistan has yet to build a security force that could be relied upon. Its economy remains totally dependent on foreign assistance despite massive injection of funds that it received all these years mainly from the US. Smuggling and drug trafficking have increased due to poor governance and the civil war.
President Ghani’s forward-looking and well-intentioned remarks have to be assessed in the backdrop of this harsh reality.
Pakistan must continue to promote stability in Afghanistan. Lately, it has stepped up pressure on the Taliban leadership to show flexibility and better understanding in reaching an agreement with the US. It is also insisting on the Taliban to engage in inter-Afghan dialogue. Unless the Taliban align to the objective of national reconciliation, peace would remain elusive. The Taliban leadership would be mistaken if they think they could ignore other important and relatively progressive forces including the present government of Afghanistan. Their attitude toward women has to change. In short, their worldview of the 1990s will find less acceptability with the younger generation of Afghans and with Afghan women.
China has been playing a very positive role in Afghanistan’s stability and development. It has both an economic and security dimension. Their interest in Afghanistan also stems from working in cooperation with Pakistan and the US on counterterrorism.
Pakistan’s key role in facilitating the US-Taliban talks and the overall peace process has been recognised by President Donald Trump. The invitation to Prime Minister Imran Khan to visit the US is indicative of the mending of fences and augurs well for the region.
Published in The Express Tribune, July 3rd, 2019.
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