Reactionary policy-making and cabinet shuffles

PM's decision is testimony to a lack of faith in appointed advisers, and the inability to stand against naysayers

The finance minister has been sacked while in the middle of finalising IMF negotiations. This comes just days after the government had pursued legal action against media outlets for reporting the same news.

The news eventually broke through Twitter, the medium through which much governance and diplomacy seems to happen in the modern day. Let’s not forget that Asad Umer was paraded as the messiah to all our economic woes. Not just after the election, but for a very long time before.

The former finance minister, after joining the PTI, had begun to epitomise the outlook of what the party claimed to bring to Pakistani politics: calculated, experienced and honest decision-making. The views on whether this was seen during his short stint in power may remain divided for years to come.

His rise to fame was echoed by Imran Khan, who constantly referred to Umar’s sacrifice of leaving job offers worth millions of rupees to instead offer his service in the public interest. As expected, the finance minister became the target of much criticism and political mudslinging early in the PTI’s reign. But, who could blame him? Inherited economic indicators were poor, the current account deficit was widening, inflation was already on the rise, a bailout was inevitable and the state was bankrupt.

It was reiterated through every possible medium that any structural reforms would only come to fruition over the long term, and that the people must learn to suffer in the arms of austerity, if only for a while.

This message resonated. Utility bills rose, food items became more expensive and the local economic projections dampened. Yet, the promise of structural reforms continued to make sense. There was no united political opposition, no large-scale street agitation and no threat of political instability.

Asad Umar’s work behind-the-scenes in the finance ministry was seen as taking a bitter pill for a better long-term outlook. Pakistan was getting ready to launch.

Fast-forward to Thursday morning, and the finance minister has been sacked.

This has happened in the shadow of, perhaps, Pakistan’s most important negotiations with the IMF. It has also happened just weeks before the PTI government introduces its first-ever annual budget.

The reasons for the sacking of the finance minister will long be deliberated and theorised. Yet one thing has become apparent, the tradition of reactionary policy-making and political infighting is here to stay. The more things change, the more they will stay the same.

This decision has been made with complete knowledge that it could compromise the integrity of Pakistan’s negotiations with the IMF, cause economic instability in the markets, and jeopardise the government’s economic vision.

It has been made in the backdrop of a process of structural reforms, which was premised on correcting institutions and changing the path of the economy rather than focusing on cosmetic and temporary fixes, such as rudimentary personnel changes.

The decision is testimony to a lack of faith in appointed and able advisers, and the inability to stand against the naysayers.

The former minister was, perhaps, handed a poisoned chalice to begin with. There was very little that could have been achieved within a year. Long-term economic changes do not happen in eight months, and they require unpopular decisions to be made.

More importantly, this beckons the questions as to what would the next finance minister do differently? Are we, once more, headed back to the days of artificially controlling inflationary pressures and current account deficits to maintain political popularity? The PML-N will tell you that policy does not always bode well.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 21^st, 2019.

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