India’s failing strategic narrative

Pakistan has been relentlessly trying to pursue the creation of peace and tranquillity in the region

It was on September 2, 1945 that the Japanese surrendered on board USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay and on 12 September General Tomoyuki Yamashita handed over his Samurai sword to Lord Louis Mountbatten and thus 680,000 Japanese soldiers surrendered to Allied forces in Southeast Asia. If the loss of war and surrender by the Japanese in 1945 was a matter of shame, the holding of Olympics 19 years later in 1964 was indicative of the resilience, hard work, innovation and determination of a nation. Despite the humiliation of the defeat and surrender, the Japanese nation has today carved out a future for itself that dwarfs the accomplishments of many countries that allied in the Second World War to ensure its defeat. Similarly, compare today’s Germany with that of 1914 or 1939, when we look back on the two wars. Today’s Germany embedded in the European Union is the most progressive, democratic and successful state that one would want to see. The rise of Russia from the ashes of Soviet Union’s disintegration in the 90s is also reflective of how the will of a nation can help revive it and achieve its past glory. In 2000 (the year President Putin came into power), the foreign reserves of Russia were $8.5 billion and its external debt was $133 billion. Eight years later in 2008, its foreign reserves had climbed to $600 billion and external debt reduced to $37 billion. Russia under President Putin re-vitalised and revived its economy to once again emerge on the world scene as a great power.

Pakistan is also making a comeback after a prolonged engagement with the war on terror that it not only had to fight but also win for its survival. Its arch-enemy, India, doesn’t fear the ‘alleged platforms of terrorism’ that exist in Pakistan that after this long battle against terrorism hardly exist in the country. What the Indians fear is the recovery and revival of Pakistan. It fears a normal Pakistan’s conventional capabilities made stronger through a revived economy. It fears its normalised relationship with its neighbouring countries as well as the rest of the world. And so it carves out a strategic narrative under the leadership of PM Modi and his security establishment. The objective of this strategic narrative is to ‘bind the audience’ in the framework of Indian lies.

Strategic narratives are the new tools in the new world and era of hybrid warfare in which the meaning of success has changed — success is no more ‘defeating the enemy’ on the battlefield as wars no more end with enemy’s defeat (Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria are a running example), they can only end by defeating the will of the enemy. A politically, economically, socially and militarily revived and strong Pakistan means a huge threat to an Indian weak case and hold on Kashmir.

So it continues to add fuel to the fire of its strategic narrative that aims at burning Pakistan’s revival. The Indian narrative aims at uniting the audience both at home and abroad to achieve the narrative’s objective. What is the objective of Indian strategic narrative in the current India-Pakistan conflict? And although this narrative has united the Indian audience domestically, would it be able to unite the regional and international audience against Pakistan as well?

The thrust of the Indian narrative is directed at tapping on the joint vulnerabilities faced by the entire set of states in a post-9/11 international system that is under threat from the forces of extremism and terrorism. Pakistan is being showcased by India as a facilitator, promoter and supporter of this terrorist threat. Utilising all instruments of power at its disposal India aims to utilise this narrative to isolate Pakistan in the international community. Will the international community fall for the Indian bluff?

The regional and international audience could readily fall for Indian narrative if India’s own house was in order. One — it is the executor of the worst state terrorism (in occupied Kashmir) easily contesting with Israel in how it terrorises the people of Palestine — thus both these countries are embroiled in a joint contest to claim the top slot in the list of countries that execute the worst state terrorism. Ironically, this ‘commonality of interest’ between them has lately brought both of them together as good friends and partners and their collaboration and cooperation specially in military affairs seems to have a joint objective — find out and learn from each other’s experience how to commit worst state oppression and atrocities on the helpless, harmless and powerless people through state coercion, suppression and subjugation. Two — India’s ‘Pulwamas in Pakistan’ executed through the likes of ‘Kulbhushan Jadhav’ have not gone unnoticed by the international community. The silence of international community on ‘Pakistan’s Pulwamas’ (there have been many with both Indian hands and footprints all over them) is understandable given the pull of Indian giant market that pays huge dividends and returns to their investments. The world today clearly understands Pakistan’s desperate efforts to progress which can only be achieved under the conditions of peace and social stability.

India’s ‘fear generating narrative’ could genuinely have created alarms if the Pakistani military had not carried out the military operations such as ‘Zarb-e-Azab’ and ‘Radd-ul-Fasad’. The politico-military decision by Pakistan in 2014 to ‘fight across the entire spectrum of threat’ actually shaped and fashioned Pakistan’s own counter narrative of standing up and fighting against radicalism, extremism and fanaticism. Pakistan since then has been relentlessly trying to pursue the creation of peace and tranquillity in the region as a national policy and has made all the right moves to achieve progressively a complete disconnect from extremism and radicalism.

As far as India is concerned it should know that in our given environment of armed conflict under nuclear umbrella unreasonable political intent and estimates propagated through an ill-guided strategic narrative can easily motivate and lead the military strategists to make wrong assumptions.

In such a scenario, war no more remains a ‘well contested duel’ but takes the shape of a rugby match in which very little skills are required, all that is required is a willingness to get hurt.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 24^th, 2019.

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