Taliban-US deal

After six days of negotiations in Doha, Qatar, the US and the Taliban have reached a preliminary understanding on ending the conflict in Afghanistan. Soon the two sides would meet again to formalise an agreement.

This is a historic breakthrough and could pave the way for Afghanistan’s long and agonising quest for peace and stability.

The deal does not offer any surprises though. There was already a convergence of views on most of the contentious issues dividing the two sides. The Taliban have achieved a major victory on the issue of the withdrawal of foreign forces from the country. The presence of foreign forces and the demand for their total withdrawal has remained the most fundamental obstacle to peace since the inception of the insurgency. They have shown flexibility on the time frame for a complete

pullout in agreeing to a period of 18 months as against nine to 12 months speculated earlier.

In exchange for the major Taliban demand of complete pullout being accepted, the movement has agreed not to let Afghan territory being used by any militant group, including al Qaeda, against the interests of the US. The Taliban have also pledged to cleanse the country of Daesh or their remnants.

This was however never an issue. The Taliban have been fighting against Daesh for over last two years in several provinces of Afghanistan. And they have never confessed to have any contacts with al Qaeda. It appears that including such a commitment on behalf of the Taliban in the draft agreement was just a face saver for US negotiators.

The issue of release of prisoners and the scrapping of the black list that imposed travel restrictions on the movement of several Taliban leaders were also equally insignificant in the scheme of things because any accord would have incorporated such clauses. There was no divergence of views or perceptions on such points.

But major hurdles still remain to be addressed.

The most complex issue that will test the nerves on both sides is an agreement on the composition and mandate of an interim government. Firstly, it is not easy to secure the approval of the Kabul regime on the issue. Secondly, there would be the problem of composition of such an interim government. Thirdly, there has to be a mechanism for the formation of an interim government. The traditional Grand Assembly or ‘Loya Jirga’ has to be convened for setting up an interim government. Fourthly, there has to be a time-barred mandate for the interim government. During the mandated period, the interim government has to hold elections under an amended constitution .And finally there would be the question of who would lead the interim government.

These are all difficult issues to manage.

Getting the Kabul regime on board will not be easy. But with pressure mounting on the government, there are hopes of some softening of attitude. If the regime is convinced that a complete pullout is inevitable they would go along with the proposed arrangement realising that without external props they would not last for more than three months.

The agreement would need to be underwritten by some regional countries. The guarantors could include Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Pakistan. Even including China and Iran in the list of guarantors could pose problems. It is here that a great deal of hard and sustained endeavours would have to be made to arrive at a consensus on how the agreement would be executed in accordance with the time frame laid down by the two sides .

Whether the US would demand keeping control of a couple of military bases for a longer period in exchange for economic assistance for rehabilitation of the war-ravaged country, is another troubling issue. Yet another issue is whether there will be guarantees of safety for those who have been in the vanguard of the struggle against the Taliban.

Guarantees of the regional countries particularly the neighbours for not extending overt or covert assistance to any group or faction inside Afghanistan would be critical to the stability of the country. Regional and neighbouring countries would have to agree to respect and ensure Afghanistan’s sovereignty and its right to choose its own internal and external policies.

Afghanistan, under the new leadership, will have to undertake to ensure that its territory is not used openly or clandestinely against any other country.

This will address Islamabad’s concerns about any possible anti-Pakistan operations being conducted by using Afghan territory.

Equally important is that Afghanistan continues to pursue its policy of seeking help and deepening its relations with all countries, including India, China and Russia.

Any agreement will have to include provisions for long-term economic and technological assistance for reconstruction. If a consensus emerges on the two critical issues of the composition and mandate of an interim government and guarantees of the regional countries for the smooth implementation of the accord, the other issues would be easy to resolve. The issue of ceasefire could be tricky. The Taliban would perhaps agree to a ceasefire only when concrete progress on two basic issues outlined above has been made.

Opening a dialogue with the government in Kabul also would follow a broad agreement on the interim government and its guarantors. Any attempt by the Ghani government to mainstream the Taliban by offering some positions of ministers, etc would boomerang and could possibly derail the whole scheme of reconciliation. The US must guard against any such possibility of the regime trying to create a space for itself to protect its vital vested interests in any arrangement that it would seek to impose on the Taliban and which would, for sure, be unacceptable to the movement.

The US must also be wary of any group or lobby that would try to sabotage the peace deal if their interests are not sufficiently protected. That is always a possibility in a multi-ethnic country like Afghanistan.

Bringing peace to Afghanistan is a daunting task considering the long list of challenges and the many risks and hazards that lie ahead. But with sagacity and an eye on the future and being conscious of the colossal damage that has been caused, it should be easy to craft policies, show moderation and courage in resolving the conflict that was as unwarranted as it was destructive.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 31^st, 2019.

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