Deciphering implications of the US mid-term elections

The much-anticipated US midterm elections have now been held. While mid-term elections usually generate much lower voter turnout than the presidential elections, and do not usually evoke much interest amongst the populace, voter turnout for the current elections was historic. However, the mid-terms have not resulted in a blue tsunami of change.

While the Democrats have managed to wrestle control of the lower house away from the Republicans, and won some more governors’ seats, the Republicans still control the Senate. However, since the house and the Senate need to agree to pass bills into law, Democrats will not be able to pass legislation, only thwart efforts on law-making by President Trump’s administration.

Democrats can also at least initiate a more meaningful congressional investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential elections, and they can turn up the heat on some of the other scandals plaguing the administration. Obamacare will now be less easily dismantled with the Democrats lower house legislators back in power. The Trump administration’s aggressive stance against immigrants will also be subjected to scrutiny and challenge.

The Democrats have seen an important shift in terms of candidates who ran for elections, and those who have brought them to power. Many more women, especially women of colour, have run for office as Democrats during these mid-terms, including two Muslim women and two Native Americans. However, the Democrats who have come to power in the mid-terms are not all progressive. These winners include a senator who was the only Democrat to support the contentious nomination of Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

How the Democrats will now use their mid-term gains to not only stall the excesses of the Trump administration over the next two years, but to try and win the presidential race in 2020 remains a big question. For the last two years the Democrats have chanted the mantra of the mid-terms, and now they will have to do and show beyond them.

The Democrats in the US have long abandoned their progressive leanings, since the Carter administration. The Clinton administration’s move to embrace big business had signalled the Democrats’ move to the centre, in the same way that the Labour Party in the UK also abandoned its leftist leanings under Tony Blair. The Democratic Party’s reluctance to give a ticket to Bernie Sanders and instead nominate Hillary Clinton enabled President Trump to harness the disgruntlement of blue- collar workers across the US. Ironically, President Trump, a billionaire himself, projected himself as an anti-establishment candidate who was going to ‘drain the swamp’ and make ‘America great again.’ Of course, he did not go after big business, and instead channelled the disgruntlement of disillusioned Americans against migrants and overseas workers, fuelling protectionist and xenophobic elements within the country.

Whether the Democratic Party will be able to provide a counter-narrative to President Trump’s vision for America, by putting forth not only a more inclusive but a globally responsible role for the country remains to be seen. The mid-term results have produced mixed results in this regard. While many more people of colour have been activated to vote for the Democrats, and to run for office, there are also many centrists who are still major players in the Democratic Party.

Besides serving to curb excesses of the current Trump administration, the challenge for the Democratic Party now will be able to develop a clearer vision to challenge President Trump in the 2020 presidential race. If President Trump manages to win another term in office, the domestic environment within the US, and the country’s role in the international community may alter to an extent that it may take a much longer time to recalibrate.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 16^th, 2018.

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