Where angels fear to tread

PTI-led coalition govt has had to grapple with the immediate and urgent problems during its first 45 days in power

It is wrong to pass a verdict one way or the other on the performance of the PTI-led coalition government on its efforts to grapple with the immediate and urgent during its first 45 days in power. One would not even like to make a judgment on its first 100 days for which it has set itself seemingly highly ambitious targets.

In developing countries in-coming governments, no matter of what kind are welcomed with open arms by the teeming millions hoping perhaps the new comers would bring in the much awaited change for the better. But the honeymoon period lasts only for a few months and at best a couple of years if its spin doctors are capable enough.

But no matter what little they succeed in doing, it does not take much for the incoming governments to lose credibility in due course of time which invariably means a year or two. This does not happen because governments do not make sincere efforts to deliver on their promises but because of chronic resource constraints they face and the wide-spread multitude of have-nots these countries are burdened with.

The PTI-led coalition government of Prime Minister Imran Khan looks decidedly sincere in delivering on its promises. But its spin doctors do not seem all that capable. From day one they seem to be venturing where angels fear to tread.

Setting up task forces for finding solutions to the multitude of problems facing the country is not a substitute for solutions. So, the spin doctors of the PTI would like to go slow on promoting the exercise of re-inventing the wheels as some kind of panacea.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a product of bilateral agreement between China and Pakistan. There is no room for a third party in the design of the CPEC accord but no country, not even the US nor India is barred from investing in any project along the Corridor. Saudis too are welcome. And since most of the oil that would pass through the Corridor on way to China is likely to be that of the Kingdom’s, it is but logical for Riyadh to think of putting up a refinery in Gwadar, say, at a cost of $8 billion. That would take at least five to six years to complete. But then perhaps its self-confessed protector, the US, would not like it at all.

Also the PTI spin doctors should desist from creating the false impression that the Kingdom is all set to invest its billions in Pakistan starting with a windfall offer of $10 billion to bailout the country from its immediate debt and trade balance obligations.

And mind you, if we are planning to go to the IMF we had better not talk about Saudi oil facility on deferred payment because if we get that facility, the IMF is out for good at least for the period the facility would be available.

Let us also be clear on the matter of quid pro quo if at all we decide to ask for Saudi bailout. Prime Minister Imran Khan has already said that we are not going to fight other peoples’ wars any more. The Kingdom which is at war in Yemen and Syria, on the other hand, is not in a position economically to offer us ‘free lunches’.

Over the past two years, massive capital flight amounting to as much as $150 billion is said to have taken place from Saudi Arabia. Wealthy Saudis reportedly believe their bank accounts are now being monitored. Small cash transfers have been questioned by government officials. Larger transfers are said to have been blocked outright. Efforts to exchange Saudi riyals for other currencies have allegedly been denied.

The flight of money out of KSA is said to have coincided with a collapse of incoming investment. A report issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development in June provided the details. In 2017, new FDI is said to have plunged to a 14-year low. Since 2016 alone, FDI is said to have dropped more than 80 per cent — making Vision 2030’s target of attracting $18.7 billion in FDI by 2020 appear to be unrealistic.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 6^th, 2018.

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