The reset

US Secretary of State Pompeo called for a “reset” in Pakistan-US relations during his visit to Islamabad on September 5^th. Our officials have also claimed that the “impasse in relations with the US has been broken”. More recent American media reports even claim that there is rethinking within the Trump administration to resume assistance to Pakistan, signalling a positive direction in relations which would be taken up in talks next week in Washington. However, the optimism about this reset needs to be considered in the context of continuing American allegations about Pakistani safe havens for Afghan Taliban as well as alleged support for “terrorists” targeting India. There accusations were fully endorsed by Pompeo and Defence Secretary Mattis during their 2+2 dialogue with India immediately after visiting Pakistan. Moreover, American denial of Pakistan’s Coalition Support Fund (CSF) expenditure and other forms of pressure such as the FATF still continue. The question, therefore, arises whether the reset in relations is plausible and sustainable? The answer will depend upon whether the US actually recognises Pakistan’s security concerns in the context of the Pakistan-Afghanistan-India triangular relationship.

Admittedly, the US has taken the positive step, even though belated, of agreeing to engage directly with the Taliban to promote a political settlement in Afghanistan, as has been consistently advocated by Pakistan. For this Washington seeks Islamabad’s help to facilitate the dialogue. In reality, therefore, the American “reset” is with the Taliban, not necessarily with Pakistan. Whether this would translate into American recognition of Pakistan’s regional security interests remains to be seen. So far Pakistan’s role is seen mainly as a “facilitator” that can help to provide the Americans with a face-saving and honourable exit from Afghanistan.

Even this limited role is not without pitfalls, owing to which the dialogue with the Taliban is not a “done deal”, as the Americans would say. For one, Pakistan can be helpful in persuading the Taliban to come to the negotiating table, but it cannot force them to accept an agreement on American terms. The Americans will not be able to achieve on the negotiating table what they have failed to gain on the battlefield. Americans are also asking Pakistan to do two contradictory things — use force against the Taliban leadership or expel them from Pakistan while also bring them to the negotiating table. This would not only erode Pakistan’s credibility with the Taliban, but they would also not agree to fight and talk at the same time. This is especially true now that the Taliban control over Afghanistan is rapidly growing. Moreover, the Taliban are increasingly being supported by Iran and Russia, which places them in a much stronger position than before.

Other hurdles include the American insistence on including the Kabul regime in the negotiations which is unacceptable to the Taliban, who view the Ghani government as American puppets. The US also seeks to retain a continuing military presence in Afghanistan which is unacceptable to the Taliban. Other regional players such as Iran, Russia and China are also unlikely to find this condition acceptable. The choice of former US Ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad, an American of Afghan origin, as the American Special Envoy, may also not inspire confidence among the Taliban as a reliable interlocutor, given his past support for the Northern Alliance. Most importantly, the Afghan government is itself divided over talking to the Taliban since this would eventually lead to their ouster.

Meanwhile, the growing strategic partnership between the US and India, in which Washington seeks New Delhi’s preeminent regional role to contain China, confronts Pakistan with a growing existential threat. Since the US sponsored nuclear waiver of 2004, enabling India to increase its nuclear arsenal, American largesse has contributed to the qualitative and quantitative Indian military build-up of its strategic and conventional forces. India now also has access to the latest high-tech American weapon systems, including Ballistic Missile Defence, Cyber Warfare and Artificial Intelligence weapons. While India plays the “China card” to derive maximum benefit from the US, Modi has become careful since the Doklam stand-off earlier this year, not to antagonise China, which, in any case, is powerful enough to keep India in check. Growing Indian military capabilities will, therefore, continue to be focused against Pakistan, as is already apparent from their force deployments and doctrines such as “Cold Start” and “Splendid First Strike”. Meanwhile, behind the facade of alleged Pakistani support to “terrorism” in occupied Kashmir, which in any case is a legitimate struggle against Indian occupation consistent with international law, India continues to promote terrorism by the Afghan-based TTP and dissident Baloch, Pashtun and other groups against Pakistan. Unfortunately, the US has turned a blind eye to such Indian machinations. Even worse, the Trump administration’s encouragement for India to play a greater role in Afghanistan facilitates their objective of using Afghanistan to encircle Pakistan along its western and eastern borders, apart from adopting their present bellicose stance against Pakistan.

The lethal combination of these issues has undermined Pakistan-US relations and unless the US recognises Pakistan’s security concerns, it would not be possible to reset the relationship in a positive direction. Accordingly, our dialogue with the US should not only be focused on evolving a sustainable settlement in Afghanistan but more importantly to convince Washington to pursue a more balanced policy in South Asia which recognises Pakistan’s genuine security interests, especially with regard to India. In order to persuade the Americans to do so, Pakistan should be willing to exercise the considerable leverage that it has with the US — not just to facilitate dialogue with the Taliban, but also its vital intelligence cooperation, land and air access for the US to Afghanistan and continued counter-terrorism cooperation. Pakistan’s growing strategic partnership with China and its deepening relations with Russia, are also significant factors that can be leveraged to truly reset relations with the US.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 26^th, 2018.

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