Read the obituary of Pakistan-India relations

The “hate Pakistan environment’ created by Indian govt can only result in a stalemated

Writing a piece “Reclaiming Global Leadership — The right way to put America first” in Foreign Affairs July/August Edition the Governor of Ohio, John Kasich, has touched some very fine ‘leadership chords’ to endorse the awakening of the dying art of leadership and state management and statecraft. He seems particularly perturbed by President Donald Trump’s changed ‘America First’ policy which is hurting like many other States — the State of Ohio as well. Generating $50billion in exports each year, Ohio’s state economy is larger than the economies of 160 countries in the world. A quarter of million jobs in Ohio depend on trade but with the US backtracking from ‘Transpacific Partnership’, the United States lost the elimination of over 18,000 tariffs currently imposed on products that it makes and sells abroad. This has severe implications for Ohio’s industries and the governor foresees not only their likely closure but also loss of jobs for people of Ohio. My first reaction after reading the piece was — Where will Trumps and the Modis of this world ultimately lead us?

This piece is a must and necessary read for any ‘close –minded’ political leadership that juggles with both the ‘bullet as well as the ballot’ to legitimise, extend and sustain a tyrannical rule on people anywhere in the world in the name of state control. I am particularly disappointed by the inability of PM Modi and his BJP-led extremist government which has once again orchestrated ‘flimsy excuses’ to side-step from the possibility of a meeting between the foreign ministers of the two countries on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York next week. The build-up to the possibility of renewed dialogue between the two countries was not without an emerging and enabling political context. The Indian Prime Minister had written a letter and had congratulated Prime Minister Imran Khan on assuming the office and Imran Khan had responded to the letter ‘expressing his desire to renew the dialogue’ between the two countries. The political effects of this ‘on the surface leader to leader soft rapprochement’ were translating into positive political acts (foreign ministers of the two countries agreeing to meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly) until PM Modi and his government once again drew and drank the stale water of ‘it can’t be done — political pessimism’ from their favourite ‘pitcher of terrorism’. I like John Kasich when he writes that ‘leaders must draw on hope to rediscover open-mindedness, civility, mutual respect and compromise’. But reading the language and the content of the statement of Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) of India which says ‘it’s obvious that behind Pakistan’s proposal for talks to make a fresh beginning, an evil agenda stands exposed and true face of new Prime Minister of Pakistan has been revealed to the world in his first few months in the office”, I am appalled at the lack of ‘civility’ and ‘mutual respect’ that the closed-mindedness of the Indian PM and his MEA through this statement has been demonstrated.

Faced with elections next year, Pakistan should have better understood the (lack of) suitability of the political environment in India to initiate, propose and indulge in a dialogue process with an Indian government whose entire politics is based on the ‘hate Pakistan’ narrative. The “hate Pakistan environment’ created by the Indian government and proliferated by its media can only result in a stalemated and deadlocked state of relationship between the two countries that cannot be realigned but only managed.

PM Modi is constrained not by the reality of his government’s belief in the political uselessness of dialogue with the Pakistan government but actually constrained by what the political usefulness that the ‘confrontational approach with Pakistan’ brings and jettisoning which would mean possible political scares and defeat in next year’s elections. So while Pakistan actually wants to accelerate the dialogue process to bring some semblance of regularity and order in the state of its relationship with India, the Indians on the other hand are fixed with their attention on the world of disorder and Pakistan’s alleged contribution to it. Is this a wise political approach?

Understanding the Indian political strategy to deal with Pakistan requires the understanding of political context and the political environment under which this strategy is being carried out. There shouldn’t be any doubt that in the absence of a conventional war Pakistan and India continue to fight an uninterrupted ‘war by other means’. Liddell Hart, the great British soldier, historian, scholar and theorist, determined that the objective of any war is ‘to create a better state of peace’. PM Modi of India and his national security team has been seeking such an ‘advantage-India peace’ for a long time now — not by engaging in a dialogue process but by ‘altering the political relationship between the two countries’ and the tool they have chosen to do so is to politically damage Pakistan by executing a National Security Objective (NSO) of its ‘regional and international isolation’. Why would India engage in a dialogue process with Pakistan when its interests are so well served with the pursuit of this NSO? The disadvantages and the political and strategic consequences that flow from this Indian NSO are so ‘Indian beneficial’ that they would be compelled to see its continuity and sustain it.

So it’s time for Pakistan to finally write an obituary of India-Pakistan relations(at least as long as the Modi government stays in power and to all the optimists of resumption of peace process between the two countries, Modi is being tipped to win next year’s elections too) and stop considering the ‘dialogue-hope’ as a plan. Continue track two diplomacy with India but spare this nation the humiliation of Indian rejections and retrenchment with ‘harsh Indian diplomatic responses’ to our peace rapprochements. As the Indians step back — which they will continue to do, others will step forward (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, and China). A cursory examination of our political environment reveals how much effort, attention and cost we have paid to counter the war on terror. This ‘death by thousand cuts’ warfare is also imposed on us and India utilises our weakness by continuing to embolden and support elements engaged in such warfare against Pakistan.

After the current harsh Indian response, Imran Khan and his National Security Team would do well now to divert most of their attention to concentrate efforts to ‘match’ the security challenges that India throws at us by practising ‘war by other means’. It’s time for us to internalise and insulate rather than externalise and try and generate a peace process which India would never allow us to jumpstart and create.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 23^rd, 2018.

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