The quicksands of Punjab

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s first challenge has arrived and it is in Punjab.

In the beginning it felt like the PTI had made it. A hung parliament at the Centre and a badly-hung assembly in Punjab. In terms of optics, a struggle to form the government could be such a nice gift — a party promising revolt against the status quo being impeded by the forces of the entrenched rent-seeking class. And once governments are formed at the Centre and in the most populous province, the very same forces of inertia would make life impossible for them. Even the worst opponents of the PTI would urge the opposition to let it function. All blame on the opposition and total gridlock. Consequently, fresh elections in about one year in which a PTI tsunami would have swept away all the rotten, disgusting parts of the old system. Meanwhile, voters would have grown accustomed to the sound of Prime Minister Imran Khan.

But that sweet dream was at once imperilled by the PTI’s own quick success in Punjab, Jahangir Tareen’s remarkable pursuit of independents and perhaps the merciless winds of change that blew in the face of opposition. The PML-N, the main nemesis of the new ruling party and the bogeyman of Punjab, was quick to retreat. No serious effort to form the government. Willy-nilly attempts to put up token fights. It was the wise thing to do. If you are in the eye of the storm, pull yourself together and hide. As a result, the PTI was supposed to fill the vacuum quickly. It did but in doing so it seems to be overstretching itself.

The party’s biggest tragedy in Punjab is that two of its best bets, Jahangir Tareen and Shah Mehmood Qureshi, are not a part of the provincial assembly. Tareen is disqualified. Qureshi won the National Assembly seat but lost in the smaller provincial constituency. In the final decision, Aleem Khan, the third-most powerful and affluent candidate, could not make the cut due to NAB references.

The party’s second tragedy in the province is that it is stuck with a really-hung legislature, which means it cannot even think about fulfilling its promise of carving out a South Punjab administrative province. So, what do you do? When you put the previous two and this together, the resulting four is right before you. Find a relatively-unknown MPA from Southern Punjab and make him the chief minister. That is exactly what was done. But as the PTI is a relatively-new party and electables in it have only just arrived, there can hardly be any dearth of ambition. Is it not a recipe for disaster? Evidently, it is.

Chief Minister Usman Buzdar has had little luck with media. A less-known man is unlikely to have too much of baggage. Especially when he has personally been scrutinised by the party chairman and now premier. But enter unfulfilled ambitions of others and the entire picture is turned upside down. Imran Khan says he is confident of his choice and I have little reason to be skeptical. But never forget the latent ambition. Hence began the drip drip drip of bad press. And when the central leadership did not budge, it also came under attack.

At the Centre, the new prime minister has done really well so far. A cabinet which seems full of technocrats despite being of political in nature. Nobody said it is perfect. However, despite one or two exceptions, the rest seem really cut out for the jobs they have been given. His first address to the nation checked all the right boxes, looked back, added a few more boxes and checked them too. Punjab, however, is another story.

There are several aggravating factors involved in the province. The first is its population. With 110 million souls almost half of the country’s population lives here. This means it is the true test of the PTI’s human development promises. The second factor is the political polarisation in the province. Considered only until a few months ago, the home turf of the former ruling party, the PML-N, it still has a lot of support for its former rulers. An aggressive accountability drive means the gradual process of culling in the party will continue. This apprehension is perhaps one of the reasons why it did not make a serious effort to form government in the province. But accountability can only take down the party’s under-investigation leadership, not the worker. Since it had access to considerable resources before it left power, the party managed to develop a narrative of victimhood against the country’s institutions and to a serious extent mobilised its base. This is not a base that takes to the streets to protest. But it does show up on the Election Day and constantly argues with you during family get-togethers. Since in this aspect both the PTI and the PML-N are torn out of the same cloth, this factor can seriously undermine the party’s popularity in the province now that the roles have reversed. And while the PML-N is unlikely to agitate on the streets, there is another force which might. Remember Punjab is also home to the TLP’s leadership.

The third factor is the nature of power-sharing formula in the province. While CM Buzdar still has to master the power politics here, you already have a powerful speaker of the assembly and a governor who knows the lay of the land. Speaker Pervaiz Elahi has ruled the province as CM during Musharraf’s rule and even rose to the make-believe post of the deputy prime minister of the country in the time of PPP’s government. And Chaudhry Sarwar is no stranger to the gubernatorial gaddee of Punjab. This power-sharing formula could easily degenerate into a dangerous tug of war.

Finally, the decision to keep a small cabinet in Punjab also leaves many ambitious party members disaffected. This is an influential and media-savvy lot and can easily pose a serious challenge to own party and its government.

It is yet to be seen how Imran Khan tackles the challenges in the province. But two things could offer his party the much-needed breather. One, if the verdict disqualifying Jahangir Tareen is reversed and he quickly makes it to the provincial assembly. Two, the provincial assembly moves quickly to empower local governments, which may change the direction of the flow of ambition. The challenges may not be too visible right now but they are bubbling under the surface and can erupt at an inopportune time. 

Published in The Express Tribune, August 30^th, 2018.

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