No ceasefire in Afghanistan

The futility of calls for a ceasefire over Eidul Azha was exemplified by the sound of mortars fired by the Taliban exploding in the diplomatic quarter of Kabul, even as President Ashraf Ghani was speaking live on national television. The explosions were heard clearly in the broadcast. The Taliban had made their point and there was to be no ceasefire. The last month has been deadly in Afghanistan. Hundreds have died and in the latest twist the Taliban hijacked three buses packed with about 200 passengers travelling to their homes for the Eid holiday. They claimed that many of those travelling were working for the Afghan security forces and they were identifying them. At the time of writing most of the passengers had been released, but the incident consolidates the perspective that the Taliban are a force that is able to operate across a spectrum of planned and coordinated actions, sustain significant casualties but remain cohesive (in Ghazni) as a fighting force and have no geographic limitation on their operational range.

The Taliban view is that the last time they observed a ceasefire it served as a Trojan Horse for the Americans operating in the country, and they were not going to fall for that one again. Also of significance is the durability of the Taliban and their capacity to fight what amount to several conflicts simultaneously. This is indicative of a robust command and control structure that is flexible and creative, and operating in many places with the support of local populations.

With the Taliban having a commanding grip on the narrative, there was something almost bizarre about the seemingly upbeat statements of the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, who is due to visit Islamabad in the first week of September. He also spoke of the desire for a ceasefire during Eid and had earlier called the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia to elicit his support as well. The Eid holiday in Afghanistan will be celebrated with all due fervour and a possibly-reduced body count.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 22^nd, 2018.

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