Shrinking vote bank: Populism-driven PPP suffers across country

PTI seems to capture vote bank ceded by PPP

ISLAMABAD: Except in its traditional stronghold Sindh, vote bank of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has been shrinking drastically across the country, Punjab, in particular, the province that decides who would rule in the center.

Votes bagged by PPP in the National Assembly during the recently held general elections were less than the votes polled to it in 16 years back since 2002 general elections despite the number of registered voters increasing from 66.71 million to 106 million during the same period.

In the polls on July 25, PPP secured a total of 6.9 million votes in the upper house as opposed to 2002 general elections when PPP ticket holders for NA had bagged 7.3 million votes.

Given 40 million to be an approximate increase in the number of registered voters during this period, PPP’s vote bank has massively regressed. On the other hand, once known as a one-man party, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) increased its vote bank from 160,686 votes in 2002 general elections to 16.8 million in 2018 polls for NA.

In 2002, the country had a total of 66.71 million registered voters. In 2008, the count rose to 80.79 million and consequently to 86.1 million in 2013. In the current year, the number of registered voters is reported to be around 106 million.



The populism-driven PPP becomes limited to Sindh

The once formidable PPP has exceedingly been limited to Sindh. In Sindh too, however, the party's vote bank has been rendered stagnant if increase in total registered voters is taken into account. According to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) statistics, PPP bagged 3.8 million votes for Sindh Assembly during the last month’s polls. It had bagged 3.6 million votes in 2008 and 3.2 million votes in 2013 general elections in Sindh Assembly.

Over the last decade, the number of registered voters in the province increased from 19.5 million to 22.3 million. The increase in total number of votes also nullifies nominal increase in the number of votes PPP has bagged in the recently concluded polls for the provincial legislature.

Where does PML-N stand?

PTI had boycotted the 2008 elections, while the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) candidates for Sindh Assembly secured 1.18 million votes in 2008. PML-N’s vote bank in Sindh reduced to 0.59 million in 2013 and it further shrunk to 0.23 million in 2018.

PTI candidates for Sindh Assembly had secured 0.60 million in 2013, increasing it to 1.4 million votes in 2018 general elections.

For PPP though, the situation in Punjab should be most alarming. Over the course of the last democratic term, their vote has shrunk from 5.5 million to 2.4 million. In the July 25 polls, the party only struggled to secure 1.7 million votes in the Punjab Assembly.

Punjab had 44.5 million voters in 2008, 49.2 million in 2013 and 60.67 million registered voters in 2018 elections. PML-N had secured 5.8 million votes for Punjab Assembly in 2008, 11.3 million in 2013 and 10.5 million in 2018. PTI, on the other hand, doubled its vote bank in Punjab during the last two elections. It secured 4.9 million votes in 2013 and bagged 11.1 million votes in 2018 in the Punjab Assembly.



Performance in K-P

PPP’s vote bank saw a marginal improvement in the recent polls as compared to 2013 in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. However, this improvement is rendered nominal if increase in number of voters is taken into account.

The total vote registered bank from K-P in 2008 was 10.6 million; it rose to 12.26 million in 2013 and subsequently 15.3 million in 2018. In the K-P Assembly, PPP secured 0.56 million votes in 2008, 0.47 million in 2013 and 0.59 million in the 2018 general elections. Its rivals from two mainstream parties, PML-N's performance wasn't much different. In 2008, the party secured 0.43 million votes. In 2013, it obtained 0.85 million and in 2018 elections it bagged a total of 0.64 million votes.

PTI which will be governing the province for the second consecutive term had bagged 1.03 million votes in 2013 and almost doubled its tally to 2.1 million people voting for it in 2018 elections.

PPP and PML-N rendered irrelevant in Balochistan

Most striking statistics have emerged from Balochistan, where PPP and PML-N are becoming irrelevant in electoral politics of the province. PPP candidates for provincial assembly had secured 165,954 votes in 2008 general elections. It secured only 51,976 votes in 2013 and 57,667 votes in 2018 polls.

Balochistan had 4.3 million voters in 2008, 3.3 million in 2013 and 4.2 million in 2018 elections. PML-N vote bank also drastically decreased in the restive province. In 2008, PML-N secured 0.44 million votes across the province. This figure dropped to 0.13 million in the 2013 elections. In July 25 elections, its candidates on provincial assembly seats secured only 28,922 votes.

Similar to their performance in the rest of the country, Khan-led PTI increased its vote bank from 24,030 votes in 2013 to 0.10 million votes in 2018 elections for the provincial legislature.