Global warming set to exceed goal, slow growth

Floods and droughts can undermine crop growth; human deaths can increase

OSLO: Global warming is on course to exceed the most stringent goal set in the Paris agreement by around 2040, threatening economic growth, according to a draft report that is the UN’s starkest warning yet of the risks of climate change.



Governments can still cap temperatures below the strict 1.5-degree Celsius (2.7-degree Fahrenheit) ceiling agreed in 2015 only with rapid and far-reaching transitions in the world economy, according to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The final draft, dated June 4, is due for publication in October in South Korea after revisions and approval by governments. It will be the main scientific guide for combating climate change.

“If emissions continue at their present rate, human-induced warming will exceed 1.5-degree Celsius by around 2040,” according to the report, which broadly reaffirms findings in an earlier draft in January but is more robust, after 25,000 comments from experts and a wider pool of scientific literature.

The Paris climate agreement, adopted by almost 200 nations in 2015, set a goal of limiting warming to well below a rise of 2-degree Celsius above pre-industrial times while pursuing efforts for the tougher 1.5-degree goal.



The deal has been weakened after US President Donald Trump decided last year to pull out and promote US fossil fuels.

Temperatures are already up about 1-degree Celsius and are rising at a rate of about 0.2-degree Celsius a decade, according to the draft, requested by world leaders as part of the Paris agreement.

“Economic growth is projected to be lower at 2-degree Celsius warming than at 1.5 degrees for many developed and developing countries,” it said, drained by impacts such as floods or droughts that can undermine crop growth or an increase in human deaths from heat waves.

In a plus-1.5-degree Celsius world, for instance, sea level rise would be 10 centimetres (3.94 inches) less than with 2-degree Celsius, exposing about 10 million fewer people in coastal areas to risks such as floods, storm surges or salt spray damaging crops.



It says current government pledges in the Paris agreement are too weak to limit warming to 1.5-degree Celsius.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 15^th, 2018.

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