PTI’s tickets to victory?

Published: June 10, 2018
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Imran Khan. PHOTO: PTI

Imran Khan. PHOTO: PTI

Imran Khan. PHOTO: PTI The writer is Executive Director News, Express News, and Executive Editor of The Express Tribune. 
He tweets @fahdhusain 
fahd.husain@tribune.com.pk

The list reads like a who’s who of Punjab’s politics — name after name dripping with lineage, electability and notoriety. These are the people that the PTI was formed against, and these are the people who may catapult it into power.

Irony lies buried somewhere in the fertile plains of the land of five rivers.

But one man’s burial is another man’s resurrection — metaphorically speaking. The PTI’s ticket holders for the National Assembly and provincial legislatures, as announced this week, constitute its best chance yet to resurrect its fortunes in the province that matters most.

The province that matters the most now boasts of 141 seats for the National Assembly. That’s 141 out of a total of 272 directly elected seats. Of these 141 seats, 46 are from South Punjab and 95 from Central and Northern Punjab. If the PTI can win more than 70 of these 141 seats, it will be in a very strong position to bring its total tally of seats near the magic number of 100. This will place the PTI in the best position to form the government at the centre.

The PTI’s selection of tickets for Punjab shows the party has done its work in terms of electability. The position of its candidates will become clearer once the PML-N formalises its ticket-holders, but the general sense one gets after scanning the PTI list is that the heavyweights dominate a majority of the constituencies.

In the south, the PTI looks rock solid. Most of the electables worth their name (and reputation) have switched over to the PTI greener pastures. the PTI traded off its ideological strength for these political grandees but it now appears best suited to win a majority of these 46 seats. Many of the strong winning candidates in South Punjab are fresh entrants to the party. They are the same ones who jump from party to party. What they lack in loyalty, they make up in votes. What they lack in integrity, they make up in electability.

Here’s how the electoral landscape looks presently as per the assessments of knowledgeable journalists in these regions:

On all four of Khanewal’s NA seats, the PTI has fielded strong electables. Both Raza Hayat Hiraj and Ahmad Yar Hiraj can pull off victories, while the other two seats may see a tough contest between the PTI and PML-N candidates. On Multan’s six NA seats, the PTI appears strong on at least two and will face a tough fight on the other four. On Vehari’s four seats, the PTI looks strong in all of them. On Bahawalpur’s five seats, the PTI has announced two candidates so far and both are said to be solid electables. On Rahim Yar Khan’s six NA seats, the PTI have winning candidates in at least four constituencies. Muzaffargarh’s six constituencies are expected to see close contests though on two seats the PTI has very strong candidates. On DG Khan’s four seats it looks like a mixed bag, while on Rajanpur’s three seats, PTI candidates appear quite solid. On paper then, the PTI looks like it may reap a rich electoral harvest in South Punjab.

Central Punjab is rich in NA seats. In Gujrat’s four seats, the PTI has decent candidates. Sialkot’s five seats will see a tough contest but the PTI’s Usman Dar and Firdous Ashiq Awan are strong electables. Narowal’s two seats will also witness a close fight as Abrar-ul-Haq and Mian Muhammad Rasheed have strong support. Gujranwala’s six NA seats are considered a PML-N stronghold and yet the PTI has fielded strong electables like Rana Nazir and Bilal Ejaz. Mandi Bahauddin’s two seats can be a toss-up though the PML-N has a potential winner in Nasir Bosal, who was a member of the previous National Assembly. In Sargodha, too, the PTI has picked electables with strong political credentials for the five seats. Khushab (2 seats) will see close contests whereas in Mianwali, the PTI is expected to win both.

Faisalabad is a key battleground boasting 10 NA seats. This is hardcore PML-N territory. But the PTI has placed itself rather well here too by opting for hardened electables. If Faisalabad witnesses tough contests, the PTI could snatch many a precious seat from here and breach the PML-N fortress.

Lahore tops with 14 seats. This still looks like solid PML-N territory because other than a few strong PTI candidates who may put up a fight, the PML-N may win a majority from here.

In Islamabad’s three constituencies, the PTI will likely win two (Imran Khan and Asad Umar). On Attock’s two seats, the PTI looks rock solid with Tahir Sadiq. On Rawalpindi’s seven seats the PML-N still retains strong candidates though the PTI may grab a few victories (Shaikh Rasheed, Ghulam Sarwar Khan), while in Chakwal too the PTI’s latest entrant, Ghulam Abbas, will likely secure a win. Fawad Chaudhry is in a winning position on one of Jhelum’s two seats.

It is obvious from the list of the PTI’s ticket-holders that a lot of thinking, planning and strategising has gone into the final selection. Now three factors remain out there which can have a bearing on the PTI’s performance in Punjab: 1) Final list of PML-N candidates and their strength; 2) Power of Nawaz/Maryam/Shehbaz narrative and whether it can blunt the electables’ strength that the PTI has acquired; 3) Nawaz conviction and its impact on the Punjab voter.

But for now, the PTI’s candidates in Punjab — as is clear from this initial assessment — pack quite a punch. They have also changed the complexion of the PTI from a party of change to a party of status quo. PTI supporters put up a feeble (and naïve) logic that Imran Khan will only use these electables to climb to power and once safely placed on the prime ministerial throne, will not pander to their base politics. If only life — and politics — were that simple.

Here then is the new reality: Today when the PTI wakes up in the morning and looks in the mirror, it sees the PML-N and the PPP staring back.

If ever there was a price for victory — this is it.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 10th, 2018.

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Reader Comments (9)

  • Zack
    Jun 10, 2018 - 12:07PM

    Well written. PTI looks like PPP of old days, the same party that it wanted to get rid of. What irony…..Recommend

  • Jatt
    Jun 10, 2018 - 1:06PM

    We don’t mind as long as Imran becomes PM. He is the hope, he will make the change happen. I am sure. Very well written, crispy. thxRecommend

  • Lkhan
    Jun 10, 2018 - 4:58PM

    With truck load of electable Lotas, born conformists, and opportunists I fail to understand the way the captain can steer the ship away from conformity and status quo. Right now the dead weight onboard PTI has charted the oft beaten course of not making waves. May be he has tricks up his sleeve, to spring surprises once he gets to the house on top of the hill.any ways I have my mind to vote for him and give him a chance to use his tricks may be for the betterment of the country. Recommend

  • Shabaz Ali
    Jun 10, 2018 - 8:05PM

    There are, unfortunately, fundamental flaws in Pakistan’s politics and its political landscape. Naya Pakistan with clean, fresh people is frankly a pipedream. Winning power can give effect to change, as limited as those who bring you this win, would like it to be. As long as negative macroeconomic policies characterise the existence of the average Pakistani, Naya Pakistan is not possible.Recommend

  • Ahmed
    Jun 10, 2018 - 8:31PM

    Good analysis Recommend

  • Saleem
    Jun 10, 2018 - 11:20PM

    All you pundits can say whatever you want but in the end Imran the Great Khan always lands an egg on your collective faces. The man knows how to make the impossible possible. A true political juggernaut and a fearless leader…rest are like little ants in front of him.

    This is not a darbari praising his lord; it is a statement of fact. IK has an AMAZING track record of making the naysayers eat humble pie!

    Godspeed Khan Sahib….we can’t wait to see you in the driving seat! No power, no politics; no politics, no policy; no policy, no change!Recommend

  • F Khan
    Jun 11, 2018 - 2:00PM

    The last line is very meaningful and loaded.Recommend

  • Parvez
    Jun 11, 2018 - 11:38PM

    Very detailed over view of the situation with a strong ending …. what you did not say was what alternate strategy should PTI adopt if it intends to win. Recommend

  • Zubair
    Jun 12, 2018 - 9:38AM

    All big political parties in Pakistan have same strategy to win the elections like what PTI is doing for coming elections. They are choosing electibles as well as has planned to launch their workers in elections to work on the pattern of PML-N for rigging. For the first time PTI may enjoy the use of KP’s machinery in the elections. I think we should know about it that PTI needs power and the only way to get it in Pakistan is “you know very well”. How much can they achieve their goal is a question but it will work. However PTI will not survive long because they will have to face same opposition what they have done in the past against PMLN and PPP.Recommend

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