Threat of delay

The Chief Justice of Pakistan says elections will be held on time.

The Election Commission of Pakistan says elections will be held on time.

PML-N Quaid Nawaz Sharif says elections must be held on time.

PTI Chairman Imran Khan says elections must be held on time.

PPP Co-chairman Bilawal B Zardari says elections must be held on time.

And yet the country is dreading a delay. What gives?

A series of unfortunate events have stimulated latent fears that there is more to the prevailing situation than meets the eye. In the fact-challenged, conspiracy-driven electorate that we have, it is not difficult to stitch this series of unfortunate events into a linear narrative.

First was the census issue. There was no way the census could be held in time for delimitation of constituencies to be done, said the naysayers. Then the census was held. There was no way the results of the census would be compiled in time before polls, said the naysayers. Then the results were compiled. There was no way the delimitations would be notified and complaints disposed of in time for elections, said the naysayers. Then they were notified and disposed of.

The naysayers persevered. Election dates would not be announced once the assemblies were dissolved, they said. The date was announced. The weather would not permit; flood would not permit; Hajj timings would not permit the holding of polls on time, they said. So far the date holds. Well, someone, somewhere, somehow will do or say something that will delay the elections, they said.

Ah! Really?

And so we come to this week where it all happened. First the Islamabad High Court set aside delimitation in a number of constituencies and referred the cases back to the Election Commission for fresh demarcation. Then the Balochistan High Court nullified delimitations in Quetta district and ordered the Election Commission to re-conduct the exercise. This was followed by the Lahore High Court order that nomination forms of the candidates — as approved by parliament — should be improved upon by adding more information. In essence this order meant the forms would need to be redrafted. In light of the LHC order, the Election Commission immediately halted the issuance of these forms.

While all this legal activity was going on, the Balochistan Assembly decided to add its two bits to the mounting confusion. With logic and timing pulled out of its collective hat, it passed a resolution demanding a delay in elections because of the hot weather and the timing of Hajj.

Conspiracy theorists are having a field day. The naysayers are back in business. We told you so, they now claim with smug faces. And suddenly, just as Pakistan was limping towards the electoral finish line, up comes another obstacle.

Speaker of the National Assembly Ayaz Sadiq declared on Saturday his intention to challenge the LHC order. He said he found it strange that the LHC sat on the case for months and only decided to announce the verdict once parliament had stood dissolved and the election schedule had been announced. He’s not the only one who finds it strange.

But strangeness alone does not make for a credible conspiracy. There’s gotta be more — like a motive.

And like all good detectives in Agatha Christie novels say, motive is discovered when you discover who benefits from the motive. So who benefits from a delay in the elections?

Imran Khan? His sherwani — still a bit wrinkled — is hanging in the Bani Gala closet. He feels his moment is here; that he has the momentum; he has the rhythm; and more importantly he has the electables — and therefore he’s racing towards the finish line. Or perhaps the finish line is racing towards him. Either way, if elections are delayed, his oath-taking as the prime minister of Pakistan is delayed. With such a delay, who knows what will happen to his momentum, or his rhythm, or his electables. Khan needs this election to happen yesterday.

Nawaz Sharif? He is undergoing his Sisyphus moment. In Greek mythology, King Sisyphus was made to endlessly roll a huge boulder up a steep hill because he believed he was smarter that King Zeus. Sounds familiar? An electoral victory can free Nawaz Sharif from the agony of watching his family, his party and his legacy face an uncertain future. The longer the delay, the weaker he may get. Sharif needs this election to happen yesterday.

Asif Zardari? He is salivating at the prospects of pulling a Sanjrani on the next National Assembly. With forty odd seats under his belt, he calculates he can be the king-maker in a hung parliament. Perhaps even the king. A delay in election means his party can be put in the grinder which so far is reserved for the PMLN. Zardari needs this election to happen yesterday.

So who benefits?

There could be two kinds of delays: 1) Procedural delay; 2) Deliberate delay. The first one is what we are seeing happening with delimitations and forms and some such other procedures that can crop up. But none of these requires an extended period of time that may extend into months or even longer beyond July 25. Procedural delays can be tackled and resolved if there is a will to do so.

Deliberate delay is the deadly one. This constitutes mala fide. The only reason whispered for such a delay is a fear that the PML-N may win again and return to power. A fear of the Sharifs climbing back into power will rock this system to its hinges. Does this constitute enough of a reason to delay the polls?

Even if it does, such a delay requires a legal cover. Procedural matters cannot make for such a cover. If it is indeed the Sharif factor which propels the delay option on to centre table, then a few weeks will not really change the situation on the ground. For a legal cover to fit the mould of such a delay, the courts will require to produce some extraordinary reasoning. Technically they could do so — as they have in the past — but they will need to factor in the steep political cost that will come with this. Flimsy grounds and legal judgments do not gel well. Generally.

For the elections to be delayed, a genuine reason needs to make itself visible. As long as it stays hidden in the shadows, it will remain a threat, and nothing more.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 3^rd, 2018.

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