Afghan quagmire

It has taken several weeks for any responsible figure to confirm that Afghan officials and the Taliban are engaged in secret or back-channel negotiations. Already the two adversaries have held several meetings through the active involvement of foreign governments and international organisations, according to US military commander General John Nicholson. The talks seem to be focused on the urgency of calling a ceasefire. Yet there are no signs of either side relenting or even easing up on the violence as both the Afghan government and the militants continue to mount deadly attacks on each other. While the Taliban launched attacks in Kabul and then in Logar province, US troops confirmed strikes against Taliban fighters in Helmand province over the last week or so. By now we are used to such posturing.

When Afghan President Ashraf Ghani proposed negotiations with the Taliban earlier this year, it was assumed that he meant secret talks since neither side had actually spoken to the other in any capacity owing to their individual policies forbidding formal and direct dialogue. Backchannel talks are critical to the struggle for finding a lasting settlement in Afghanistan. This will lay the groundwork for peace and incrementally set the parameters for how future negotiations unfold. The challenge is to accomplish the unthinkable within the framework of the conflict in the zero-sum game politics in Afghanistan.

A visible development in the Afghan conflict came in February 2018 when President Ghani, unlike his predecessor, Hamid Karzai, decided to accept the Taliban as a legitimate stakeholder who could be taken as a full negotiating partner — provided it accepted a ceasefire and recognised the country’s Constitution. The next step is to find a ripe moment to break the chain of tit-for-tat violence. After that it is important for the belligerents to work towards an intermediate agreement. 

Published in The Express Tribune, June 1^st, 2018.

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