Running on empty

These columns have regularly flagged concerns about the rolling water crisis that is enveloping the country. It is impossible to overstate the severity of the crisis that is truly existential and is going to have to be addressed by whoever is in power politically. In large part this is a self-inflicted wound caused by the serial failure by successive governments to build the necessary storage dams. Political and provincial rivalries are at the bottom of that shot in the foot, and the work on the Bhasha Dam may well be too little too late for agriculture and riverine communities.

The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) warned on Friday May 25^th that the two principal water reservoirs are going to reach dead level within 24-48 hours and by the time these words are read may well have already done so. An IRSA spokesperson described the national water shortage as ‘disturbing’ and they were right to do so. Temperatures are rising — see the Karachi heatwave — and rainfall is decreasing over the mountains to the north that feed into the Indus system. Snow-melt is also slow this year. There is little likelihood of ‘good’ rains even though the monsoon is now well developed in the south of the subcontinent. The effect on this year’s cotton and mango crops in particular is going to be serious. Deficits in crop yields will feed through into the economy. The earliest that there could be significant rain according to the meteorologists is the middle of June, and even that is speculative.

There is nothing that Pakistan can do that is going to affect long-term global weather patterns and it is going to be an early casualty in the global warming process, but mitigation is possible and measures can be taken that could lessen negative impacts. The neglected canal system could have leaks plugged, wasteful water usage stemmed and mains water pipes similarly maintained. This is a forever crisis and it needs to be at the top of every political agenda. Pakistan is running on empty and is almost dry. And the sense of urgency? None we have noticed.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 27^th, 2018.

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