A promising start?

It is rare for there to be something positive on the table when it comes to talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and even rarer for either side to be upbeat about what the other may have to offer. There have been dozens of moves in the last decade to stabilise the relationship and the majority has failed in whole or part. The headline today is that a senior Afghan official is saying that Pakistan is part of the solution rather than part of the problem, representing a 90-degree turn and a welcome development. The comment was made at a meeting to mull the finalisation of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity.

The proof of the pudding as ever is going to be in the eating. Difficult as bilateral agreements such as this are to make they are even more difficult to implement as the political and military tides ebb and flow unpredictably and rarely to the benefit of all sides — there are many more than two in play at any time. Several of those sides are against any sort of rapprochement, primarily made up of the various factions of the Taliban, the Islamic State in Afghanistan and to a lesser extent in Pakistan and rather distantly in these diminished days al Qaeda that likes to think it still has a part to play.

It is a given that none of these non-state actors was a party to the meeting which a majority of analysts in and out of both countries see as a significant impediment. Whilst we warmly welcome positive words they have to be accompanied by moves that are a reflection of reality. A cursory glance at any of the current maps of Taliban — all iterations — influence or control over Afghanistan is a grim reminder that the legitimate Afghan government is in control of less than half of the country and the proportion is dropping by the month. Peace is only going to be achieved and sustained if any agreement between the two countries is inclusive of all the stakeholders. And that includes the Taliban. Some things are more difficult than others. But doable.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 17^th, 2018.

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