Schmoozing the bear

In the murky undergrowth of geopolitics nothing is forever. The tectonics may move exceedingly slow but move they do, and the last decade has seen what amounts to a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s external relations. The always fragile and fractious relations with America have been hit by the Osama bin Laden raid, the Raymond Davis affair and the killing of Pakistan troops on the Salala ridge by an American airs trike — and now President Trump weighs in. Pakistan has been fingered in the new Trump strategy for Afghanistan and the South Asian region as something of a blackguard, untrustworthy and a poor partner in any enterprise.

Be that as it may there is more than one way to view the role that Pakistan has, does and can play and two nations with a close interest in that scenario are Russia and China. The Chinese relationship with Pakistan has undergone a wide-ranging refurbishment with CPEC and is well enough known, developments on the Russian front however are less obvious. There are now heavy-hitting Russian helicopters in the inventory well suited to counter-terror operations, Russian and Pakistani soldiers have conducted joint exercises despite pressure from India to cancel them and the picture that is emerging is that Pakistan, far from being “isolated” — a perception strongly advertised by India — is in reality pivotal and that players more local than the US recognise that.

The swing towards Russia has also to be seen in the context of the Pakistan relationship with Saudi Arabia. For Pakistan, its links to the KSA are edging towards the divergent as the links to Russia are convergent. There are no schemes of grand design shared by Pakistan and the KSA as there are with China and, increasingly possibly — with Russia. Neither country has much beyond a watching brief regarding the war being prosecuted by the KSA in Yemen. Pakistan is at a point of geopolitical opportunity that it would do well to grasp. Opportunities like this are rare. Do not squander it by petty politicking.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 9^th, 2018.

Like Opinion & Editorial on Facebook, follow @ETOpEd on Twitter to receive all updates on all our daily pieces.