Looming water crisis

The crop yield for the upcoming harvest season of Kharif crops is likely to be reduced drastically due to reduced water discharge from Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs, which currently stand at a dead level. The water shortage was initially projected to be at 31 per cent, but instead stands at 60 per cent. Though there are various factors that account for such critically reduced water shortage levels, climate change and the controlled flow of water into rivers from India to Pakistan are the major reasons.

The impact of the reduced water supply for the seasonal harvest in Pakistan will be manifold and is not limited to reduced crop supply in the domestic market only. Kharif crops, which primarily include cotton, sugar cane, rice and millet, account for 60 per cent of cotton exports and a foreign exchange of over $2bn from rice exports only. With already dwindling figures of Kharif crop exports to international markets, domestic markets will fare far worse.

Apart from the crop supply, the hydel power supplied to the agriculture processing zones and commercial and residential units in the country will also face a cut down — particularly at a time when the government is already struggling to settle its liabilities against Pakistan State Oil and tackle the power crisis in the country. But despite the fact that the threat of reduced water levels has been there for the past few years along with the rapidly looming power crisis, no substantial measures have been taken to avert the situation. Instead the government leaves it to the almost non-existent monsoon rainfalls to make up for the agricultural water needs, as farmers rely on ground water to irrigate their crops. Moreover, according to the Indus River System Authority only Sindh and Punjab will receive a reduced water supply and not K-P and Balochistan. However, considering that Balochistan has a low population density and a relatively low crop yield than other provinces, a better situation would have been to allocate a fairer quota-sharing formula among provinces.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 3^rd, 2018.

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