Pakistan

Dynamics of a N Waziristan operation

Khalid Munir May 27, 2010

Once again the media is buzzing with news about American pressure on Pakistan to carry out an operation in North Waziristan Agency. Every visit by American generals gives rise, rather confirms this speculation. Pakistan has said that it will choose the timing itself, that is amounting to agreeing to carry out the operation.

If we look at the ground situation prevailing in Fata and Pakhtunkhwa, the army is overstretched. Stiff resistance is being faced in Orakzai Agency. Tirah valley in Khyber Agency will be a big thorn when the time comes to clear it. And parts of Mohmand and Bajaur have yet to be cleared. Swat is in a state of consolidation state which means that its civil administration needs the army to be around, at least for one more year. Also, there have been signs of the militants re-emerging, albeit not on the same scale as before. In South Waziristan the army is there but most of the its residents are currently in Tank and Dera Ismail Khan as IDPs.

In these conditions making troops available for a major operation in NWA will not be feasible. Already a major chunk of army is busy in active operations. Relocating troops from any operationally active area may result in providing breathing space to Taliban and thus giving them a chance to reorganise. Besides, keeping in mind North Waziristan’s terrain, there may be heavy causalities to our troops. The same goes for artillery guns, not counting the wear and tear to the rest of the equipment.

Another factor which needs to be kept in mind is how to safeguard Pakistan’s interests when Nato forces leave Afghanistan. The Taliban in the agency such as Hafiz Gul Bahadur, Maulvi Nazir and Jalaluddin Haqqani have rarely attacked the Pakistan army or carried out terrorist activities inside the country. Hence, eliminating all pro-Pakistan elements before any meaningful dialogue takes place in Afghanistan will not be in our interest. We may be left with only Gulbadin Hekmatyar’s Hizb-i-Islami as the only pro-Pakistan group. Also, Kashmiri mujahideen and Lashkar-i-Jhangvi (commonly known as Punjabi Taliban) are present in the area and dealing with them requires an altogether different strategy than the tribal militants.

Pakistan should think about reformulating its policy regarding Afghanistan. Afghanistan was a never a satellite state of Pakistan and never will be. All we should strive for is a non-hostile Afghanistan. And while the Taliban regime in Afghanistan was allied with Pakistan, it had a profound influence on Pakistani society and this is turn gave rise to militancy in Fata and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.

Though Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has said that there are no good or bad Taliban, we know that he is not the one who is calling shots in formulating the Afghan policy. The army chief must understand this as well and ensure that the next generation does not suffer because of the mistakes and lack of vision of the older generation.

COMMENTS (40)

Khan | 14 years ago | Reply A very well written piece by Khalid Munir. I saw some odd comments though. People saying we should attack now and that the masses want it and since the army is subordinate to the democracy the army should kill all Taliban.. nonsense really. I know for a fact that Pakistan army is indeed one of the strongest and most disciplined armies amongst the world second tier armies. And if its in the second tier its only because of technology and a limited budget. I agree that the state policy has to be dictated by the democratic government, but let us not talk about masses dictating how a war should be waged. I remember reading about Bismarck and the one thing that makes him an outstanding statesman is he never did what the masses said, for example after the franco-prussian war of, was it 1871, against popular demand - he left France to the French, moved his armies out of French Territories and drew a favourable treaty. We must understand that democracy is to elect a leader and the leader must do what he knows is best. The leader cannot follow the call of the masses through media.. that would be fatal. If the army presently feels that it has to rest and recuperate, or perhaps as Khalid Munir says it is overstretched, then it simply cannot be pushed into an operation it is not ready for. El Edroos says that everyday people are beheaded and attrocities commited and the security forces are just sitting. Well, Mr El Edroos, I have followed most of your comments and I feel you have this inner anger against your nations army, that is if you are a Pakistani (name sounds trans-jordanian). Look, I know you are angry about the defence housing and things like that, but this topic has nothing to do with that. I spent 12 years in the military and then (feeling i'd done my pennance) left without a housing scheme account or even a pension. I've seen the army inside out and I assure you its the most disciplined outfit in the country. Yes, there may be a bit this and that in the senior heirarchy, but compared to the civil beaurocracy its negligent. I also saw a comment by someone saying we celebrate defence day for a war we lost. In 1965 we launched an operation to liberate the occupied state of Kashmire and this operation then escalated into a war. But we defended our borders from a major Indian ingress and if at all there was an ingress we had a corresponding advance thus ending the war at a neutral footing. Compare the giant India with Pakistan and I'd say we did rather well. We didn't acquire the aim of the operation so one may say we lost the war. But we defended well and I don't see any harm in celebrating that. Think objectively everyone. Leave the work to the army, in good time they will clear this mess up.

MacNurv | 14 years ago | Reply By all accounts chances are US will repeat the same mistake as it did at near the end of Vietnam war. Then it bombed Cambodia and now it threatens Pakistan, the only difference is Cambodia did not had a capable army Pakistan does. Territory and its control is one of the pivots of concepts of Sovereignty, US have already invaded Pakistan on several occasions by sending its Special Forces. Not to mention the daily drone attacks. Any one who have negotiated with Americans knows this in order for you to make them listen to your point of view is to lay it the way it is, in a very candid and direct manner. Pakistan should make it clear privately and publicly that any unilateral actions will be considered an attack on Pakistan's sovereignty. Albeit that who in Pakistan can dare to say NO to them, not the current elite. US is publicly building a case against Pakistan, using NYT, WP et.al which are known propaganda mouth pieces for the US establishment. Some analysts are insisting that this is nothing more then a benign media circus designed to appease a electoral section of US society, they must be reminded that not only the Americans have the capability but also intentions to use Pakistan and its army as a escape goat. Such policy of denial will only lead to self defeat. Pakistan should consider these threats very seriously and act accordingly both Diplomatically and Militarily. Sooner or later Americans will leave Afghanistan and the mess will be left for us to be dealt with. Pakistan should safe guard its interests, Afghan Taliban are a reality that Pakistan must face. It is about time Pakistan develop a strategy to protects its own interest rather then serving that of Washington.

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Zafar Mian | 14 years ago | Reply Khalid Munir's analysis is based on pure facts and realty. Fortunately, Pakistan still has so many brains like Khalid but it's a pity that their voice is not heard by decision makers in power. It's a curse that Pakistan is under the control of incompetent, inefficient, irresponsiblle, under-educated, dishonest, selfish and corrupt rulers without any vision who accidently grabbed the Power. Opposition is also very friendly for their own good. Army Chief General Kiyani has sincere ambitions and he is struggling his level best to stay on the right path without involving Armed Forces into politics but his options are very limited. At times, he seems helpless and makes decisions against his will under pressure of so called foreign allies and ignorant "democratic" rulers. Pakistan's media, electronic and print, is playing an important role to help keep the record straight and educate the public with the vision of so many talented and brilliant anchors and writers. I wonder if its feasible to pick some brains like Khalid as consultants by the Army Chief to assist him in making more patriotic decisions to protect Pakistan and Pakistanis. It's easy to label past Mujahidins as Insurgents and Terrorists but nobody takes the trouble to go in the bottom to find out the cause of this tragic situation. Under Musharraf's illegal and immoral rule, General Kiyani's hands were tied due to strict army discipline. I firmly believe that if General Kiyani was COAS at that time, Lal Masjid massacre and Nawab Bugti's murder could easily be avoided. As General Kiyani is Incharge now, I am confident that he could avoid new adventures like one proposed in North Waziristan in order to save thousands of Pakistanis from Death & Destruction. Force is not the only soultion of this problem. Who is to blame to make some of these loyal Pakistanis so Crazy whose only option is now to kill and to die? How many "Terrorists" were created as a result of massacre of mostly innocent children in Lal Masjid? Of course some fanatics or religious extremists were also killed in the operation. How many Insuregents or Terrorists were there in Pakistan on January 01, 2002. I guess "None". Bucher Bush and Murderer Musharraf are to blame. Bush did it as a co-consipirator of Jews and Mush did it to get Dollars and earn legtimacy as he was not recognized as a legitimate ruler of Pakistan. As I recall, President Clinton had refused to shake his hand with Mush during his brief visit to Pakistan. President Obama has a will and vision to clear all this mess but I wonder that all his team mates have the same ambitions. In my honest opinion, some patriotic Pakistani leaders from ruling class should convince President Obama to reconsider his policies of miliatry action in Pakistan as it could not bring any fruitful results so far. It has created more mess, destruction, confusion and rise in terrorism. President Obama is a very considertae, reasonable and a good listner. I am sure his actions or lack of actions could bring Pakistan out of this self created Hell. Allah Bless Pakisan and save the innocent, poor and helpless Pakistanis from any further torture and hardship. Aameen.

Ali Manzar | 14 years ago | Reply I completely agree with the author's analysis regarding the Afghanistan policy. Whether we agree to it or not, we as a country are on our knees at this time, economically we are almost bankrupt, militarily we are too busy to defend our borders towards the most hostile regions. Let us start to aggressively launch a nation-building operation before treating any country as a "satellite state". I think we need to wage jihad....a jihad to save our homeland. Let's do that first and then see how we can expand.

Yasser | 14 years ago | Reply a correct analysis indeed. though unfortunately for Pakistani's US will be able to push Pakistan into NWA through 1)political disorder 2)Faisal Shehzad 3)Pakistani Man arrested in Chile 4)Freedom of Speech violation 5)Damage of minority rights 6)India always waiting in wings to cash any opportunity or if nothing succeed US will issue threats get ready to go back to stone age just like Negropante did in 2001 which is mentioned in former President Musharraf book. Such an ally Pakistan is of America...

Shazia Manzar | 14 years ago | Reply Government after Government, Pakistan has been involved in knee jerk responses, whether it's Terrorism, Power Shortage or any other issue. How much longer will it take and how much more loss can their follies incur before the state of affairs really start taking a turn towards the better and the Government attempt to get to the root of the problem and solve the core issues.Rather than treating the deep wounds, that need major surgeries and prolonged treatment, covering them with band aids, or just giving up on the patient and doing away with him would not cure the seething wounds.

Arooj Akbar | 14 years ago | Reply While we sit in our comfortable gardens, sipping whichever flavor of herbal tea's in fashion, deciding if the Taliban are good or evil and if the Americans have raised a righteous war for the preservation of the entire humanity (at which, FYI, they don't really give a crap, even if we do have an elected government, and a whole lot of good that brought us), we should realize that spoken words alone have never won wars, raised houses, made lives, or healed wounds. What needs to be done, must be done. These self- indulgent, self- imposed moralistic judgmental calls should be dealt with as per their credibility, efficiently and tidily, and honestly, let the voices from that area be heard for what they're worth. After all, aren't they the one suffering the most? Taliban or no Taliban, any witness to this epoch should remember the results achieved, and not the bitterness of spoken words alone.

Muhammad Ziad | 14 years ago | Reply In any case, once America withdraws from Afghanistan the most likely government to come into power would be that of the taliban. Although , Us will never leave without creating a rift or getting the Pakistani forces involved across the border. Perhaps the NW operation is just the beginning. Latest news bring Rifts in the ranks among the Pakistan taliban who have aligned themselves with Al-Quaida. There are divided onto what to Focus upon , the Pakistani army or Nato. In every case Pakistan will be pressured to be involved across the border deep into Afghanistan even if Nw is cleared out. This is only to make a safe exit for US and Nato forces.

Ayaz siddiqui | 14 years ago | Reply Well written and i compeletly agree with the writer

saba khan | 14 years ago | Reply Food for thought. I think its high time that we should sagaciously ponder on the highlighted issues and aspects. A well thought writing. Great work!!

Bangash | 14 years ago | Reply If not an operation, then constant air attacks on militant savages in North Waziristan is required.

haniya rajput | 14 years ago | Reply Pakistan is sincere and committed in combating terrorism and is ready to expand its anti-militancy operations to North Waziristan.

Ghayas Khan | 14 years ago | Reply actually brothers the real fact is we dont know the real fact and figures so in my council its totally wasteg of time and to get hipper so i cant give any type of comment on these type of statment so plz dont mind.........

saad ali | 14 years ago | Reply Every thing which is going round in the pakistan is not good These are the consequences of american and israel interfarence in pakistan we should save our national interests and should keep our diginity

Wazi Swazi | 14 years ago | Reply Taliban is by product of false, militant, and uneducated Pakistani Mullahs who are supported by Pakistani State, ISI and Army for past 30 years. The world has realized that Pakistan is the epicentre of today's world wide terror activities. All Islamic Terrorist are directly or indirectly connected to Pakistan Society. If Pakistan is claiming to be a sovereign state, then it needs to stop facilitating, supporting and exporting terrorists. Otherwise NATO or any other force has the right to defend themselves in any corner of the world. Pakistan cannot avoid its responsibility.

Asfandyar Munir | 14 years ago | Reply I am a general citizen of this country and might not know about all the strategies of our army, but I do know that time and again it has been drilled into my head that we had one of the "best" armies in the world. We were a muslim fighting force who could not be defeated. There would be major shows on the 23rd of March to tell us all that our army was "awesome".... Forgetting history with our eastern neighbours, i look at the present. While the operation was "successful" in Swat, were the Taliban eliminated? No. What's the status in SW? What happened to all those claims of superiority? Can these radicals give our army such a hard time? OR ARE PEOPLE IN GHQ SUPPORTING THEM?? Our premier was right in saying there are no good or bad taliban. A parasite consuming our country from within, Talibans are a threat that need to be eliminated. As far as America asking us to do more. Well i agree that we need to be a sovereign state, but we are their allies and it is our country which is producing the likes of Faisal Shahzad. Pakistan is a democratic state, where the army needs to be answerable to the people they swore to "serve". And if the masses want the extinction of the Taliban, then the army should not hesitate in doing so, after all there have been 60 years of tall claims. The last thing we need in Afghanistan is the barbaric government of the Talib, which the author himself has said, influenced militancy in our tribal regions.

Iftikhar Firdous | 14 years ago | Reply I couldn't agree with you more Khalib Sb.

Ihsanullah Khan | 14 years ago | Reply America has spent 10 years in Afghanistan how many more decades it required to catch a few Al-Qaeda members. A well written piece.

Sajid Ali Khan | 14 years ago | Reply This was a good attempt & sound analysis by col. Khalid Munir. I totally agree with him. Now its time that America should leave Afghanistan.

Farooq Ahmad | 14 years ago | Reply Media is already full of suited Taliban. Did we need another?

Ajmal | 14 years ago | Reply Well said Khalid. It is high time that we tell Americans that enough is enough and let us sort our problems ourselves. We have better options to deal with Talibans whether good or bad based on our customs and traditions. Somebody has rightly said that, "Let's not prostitute for dollars" and stand on our own feet.

Moon | 14 years ago | Reply dear writer i agree with you Pakistan should think about reformulating its policy regarding Afghanistan. Afghanistan was a never a satellite state of Pakistan and never will be

mujahid | 14 years ago | Reply Dear Khalid munir ,I am inspired by your writing. And I hope you will continue writing on hot issues leo.khan72

MNA | 14 years ago | Reply The only hope and encouragement in this article comes from the inspirational photo of Col Khalid Munir.

Sara | 14 years ago | Reply Good one

Atif Muhyuddin | 14 years ago | Reply Khalid Munir thank you very much for sharing your writing with us , we need writers like you who can write real facts and read between the lines you are one of the few sane analysts, I agree with khalid that Pakistan must act within military constraints and for its national interest, we have done enough and getting nothing but being told by the Americans to do more. I am thankful to the editor and team of daily tribune for introducing new writers like Khalid munir ,

Atif Muhyuddin | 14 years ago | Reply Khalid Munir thank you very much for sharing your writing with us , we need writers like you who can write real facts and read between the lines you are one of the few sane analysts, I agree with khalid that Pakistan must act within military constraints and for its national interest, we have done enough and getting nothing but being told by the Americans to do more. I am thankful to the editor and teal of daily tribune for introducing new writers like Khalid munir ,

Ammar Zafarullah | 14 years ago | Reply I am rather baffled with this obscured analysis. The operation in N-Waziristan is imminent, why should we wait and allow the militants to consolidate their power and turn into a bigger threat?Ironically the author is no different from apologists such as Hamid Gul, and I quote “Though Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has said that there are no good or bad Taliban, we know that he is not the one who is calling shots in formulating the Afghan policy. The army chief must understand this as well and ensure that the next generation does not suffer because of the mistakes and lack of vision of the older generation”. So the elected premier has no say when it comes to devising a counter-terrorism strategy? The author implicitly implies that there is a breed of “Good Taliban” i.e. Hafiz Gul Bahadur, Maulvi Nazir and Jalaluddin Haqqani for they have “rarely attacked Pakistani security forces”. So if these “Fine gentlemen” do not attack our Army and the actively engage in cross-border terrorism it’s absolutely kosher for they are Pro-Pakistan elements! In a nutshell the author advocates harboring terrorists who are a cause of numerous drone attacks as we are hesitant to confront them! With over 3,021 deaths in terrorist attacks alone in 2009, we are still considering these barbarians as “strategic depth”. The policy of appeasement must come to an end; we have to action against all non-state actors as we are so concerned about state sovereignty. Well guess what! Sovereignty comes with State's responsibility so if we do not take immediate actions against these militants chances are our sovereignty will be eroded time and again!

Nadir El Edroos | 14 years ago | Reply So while we plan and stratgize Pakistani civilians are left to the mercy of the local Taliban in North Waziristan, having the law of the land trampled day in and day out! Deprived of education, access to justice, facing beheading's and amputations our security forces should not go in to defend them? If a Defence Housing Authority of Cantonment was taken over by the Taliban no one would hold back our security forces then? Just goes to show how worthless a life of a Pakistani citizen is. Either you will get blown up in a terrorist attack, or your own military, paid for by your own taxes, will sit and stratgize as your life is made into a living hell.

Asim Saeed | 14 years ago | Reply I believe that Col. Khalid Muneer has a very valid point when he is stating the logistics and security scenario of FATA. I believe that we should not give into NATO's pressure. We have to keep our strategic needs above any other thing. Further we MUST look into long term scenario not just an immediate situation. Further I believe that Pakistan has done more than its fair share of fighting Taliban & co. It is time we must ask first for full recognition of what we have done from the NATO countries. Only and only once NATO countries have delivered our demands should we plan for the next move. I strongly suggest that we should demand following from NATO: 1. Immediate writing off of all our debts owed to each of these countries and world bank etc. as compensation of all our sacrifices. 2. With immediate effect all trade embargoes and sanctions be removed. 3. We must have access to all the technology needed for development and access to the markets of all NATO countries. 4. We must be treated as sovereign and independent nation and given due respect. 5. Our genuine concerns about double standard dealing with Pakistan versus India be addressed. We must be treated as equals 6. We must be openly recognized as a nuclear power. Only and only once the NATO delivers it will we consider any other operation. Remember they are in a quagmire and need you take on their war at an immensely huge cost. If cannot get it now we can never get these demands.

Rehman | 14 years ago | Reply Dear Sir, Army should go ahead and kill and clear the area of NWA and entire FATA and other infested areas. They should follow the line and command of NATO and US forces as it is in the country's best interest. Isnt it an irony that the Army kept the Indians bogged down in Indian insurgency for so long just relaizing that "What goes around comes around" and how expensive it can be. How come our brave troops cant keep up with rag-tag, their own trained terrorits despite the constant flow of dollars and military equipment to fight this global menace. It is first battle rather for our modern day army to prove to the world its mattle. Bravos jawans, the time has come as the nation has fed the Army for so long for the real fight around the corner. Dont chicken out this time please and just do it.

Rabia Zafar | 14 years ago | Reply A well-written and thoughtful piece. In an ideal world, Pakistan's national security policy would be devised independently by a civilian administration, with strategic guidance only from its military establishment. However, we do not live in an ideal world and Pakistan cannot expect Americans not to voice an opinion after American tax-payers dole out millions of dollars in military aid to Pakistan. Of course, Pakistan must act within its military constraints and according to its national interest - but it must realize that its interests are increasingly linked to a secure and prosperous Afghanistan.

Andleeb Tafweez | 14 years ago | Reply Very thorough analysis on the issue. This point can not be stressed enough that operation in North Waziristan calls for a very well thought out and carefully evaluated decision. An extremely grave responsibility lies with the Govt of Pakistan and the Army chief regarding taking this call. Pakistan cannot endure any more devastation than already faced by the nation due to the hasty decisions of previous regimes. It is high time that the authorities give precedence to this country than to the undue demands of America.

Muqeet Khan | 14 years ago | Reply very well written

faraz | 14 years ago | Reply Obviously the army wont eliminate all those groups. Who can even think of having such cheap disposable strategic assets in the 21st century. While generals were busy playing golf, these kids of poor families were being indoctrinated and ruthlessly exploited in kashmir and afghanistan. Is there any army in the world which recruits civilians to fight proxy wars. The army which couldnt cross Rohi Nala during 1965 war wants strategic depth in afghanistan! Such foolish ideas of strategic depth can only come from an army which celebrates defence day for a war that it actually lost.

Asim Mahmood | 14 years ago | Reply I totally agree with the writer that We must remain focused on the emerging scenairo once the NATO's has gone from Afghanistan and that should dictate our future strategy and not the trail of visitors. We must not finger the hornet nest prematurely with the bare hands and without protective gear. Yes, there are quick fixes but those are for the west, do it, dust off the hands and depart but not for us who have to dwell there for ever.

Col (R) Arshad Rahat Ansari | 14 years ago | Reply *I agree strongly with Khalid Munir, not only that he is my course mate but also for the fact that he is one of the few sane analysts left in Pakistan. We have done more then the entire world in fighting terrorism whether monetarily or with life or property. Sir we did not have so many army casualties during 65 war with India, as we have had up till now fighting terrorism. Ask the plight of all the young widows and young children of the martyred soldiers. Ask us who's near and dear ones are serving in N Waziristan and Orakzai or FATA, how we feel...and then we are coerced by the Americans to do more because a punk drawing room wannabe terrorist tries to blow a truck in Times Square. Have the Americans ever thought of seeing what is wrong with their society? Why the immigrants who lands in USA with dreams in their eyes turn their backs on the glitzy society. Please accept some responsibility for successfully converting a modern man into a Jihadist. Remember I am a proud soldier and detest Talibans but lets say enough is enough, we have to survive after the NATO forces leave Afghanistan... as usual leaving us in a lurch. let the Chief play his cards and we hope he shall with the future generations fate in his mind. Thank you Khalid for raising a sane voice. *

Spinkane | 14 years ago | Reply a well written piece.Army would conceive its own plan,choose suitable time for launching an operation in NWA.Commander Coalition Forces may not be comfortable, launching simultaneous operations in Helmand and Kandahar,so why do they expect Pak Army to commit troops in all the seven Agencies of FATA.

Muhammad Bilal Iftikhar Khan | 14 years ago | Reply the irony with Pakistani so called intellectual elite is that it is very easily convinced by any thing comming out westren especially american press. some so called intellectuals like to critise Pakistan with pleasure without knowing facts and banking on westren press. same is with Pakistani media who likes to protect US intrests more than their own National intrests. What ever NYT or Washtington Post says is gospel to us. As for NWA, have any one wondered that at present more then 8 divisons of PA are involve in counter Terrorism operations in FATA. 8 divisons mean that amount of force involve in CT Operation in FATA is more than force which fought in 1965 war with india . the advocates of US intrests fail to understand that at present without clearing Aurakzai, Kurram, Mohmand etc and bringing long term peace it will be a stupidity to go to NWA. I dont understand why these so called Intellectuals want people to suffere more for the intrests of US. I agree we have to clear NWA but its not the time.

Muhammad Bilal Iftikhar Khan | 14 years ago | Reply bravo, at last a sane voice

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