Opinion

Three choices to deal with US

Washington’s punitive measures may have strategic reasons

Kamran Yousaf January 08, 2018

The writer is a Senior Correspondent of The Express Tribune in Islamabad. He tweets @Kamran_Yousaf

Initially, perhaps many would have assumed, President Donald Trump’s 4am tweet on the New Year was just a bluster. But hold on! He has proved his detractors wrong. Trump has made good on his threats as his administration moved swiftly to suspend almost the entire security assistance to Pakistan. The next move could be stripping Pakistan of the status of a major non-Nato ally and finally declaring Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorism, if Islamabad does not act decisively against the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network. But before we reach that stage, there still exists opportunity for the two ostensible allies to prevent the complete rupture in their fragile cooperation.

It would be an understatement to say that Pakistan is confronted with a daunting task. Policymakers in Rawalpindi and Islamabad have been scratching their heads to find a way out. There are three choices before Pakistan to tackle arguably one of the toughest foreign policy challenges in recent years.

First option: accept all US demands, including opening a front against the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network. This would restore the US trust and prove that Pakistan can be a reliable partner. The step may entail financial and other benefits. But that option runs contrary to Pakistan’s approach since it believes the solution to Afghan problem hinges on sustained peace talks. And for that process to take shape, it is vitally important that all stakeholders create conditions that encourage negotiations. Use of forces, according to Pakistan, does not complement that approach. Also following such a US decision means risk opening another front against the Afghan Taliban, who have not targeted or launched any attacks inside Pakistan.

This takes us to the second option, that is, to show total defiance. It is a popular approach that can envisage withdrawing from the US alliance, shutting down the crucial supply routes for the US-led foreign forces in Afghanistan, shooting down US drones and suspending all kinds of cooperation aimed at bringing some semblance of peace in the war-torn country. Imran Khan, the leader of the Tehreek-e-Insaf, is strong proponent of that approach. But pitfalls of such a policy would be huge. The US can not only block all kinds of financial assistance but also influence international financial institutions to put an economic squeeze on Pakistan. Complete breakdown of the relationship with the US can invite catastrophic consequences.

And that is why the country’s civil and military leadership has responded cautiously to the Trump’s onslaught. Notwithstanding the statements from defence and foreign ministers, the security establishment, which perhaps knows the intricacies of the Pak-US relationship better than others, is not jumping the gun. The official Twitter handle of the chief military spokesman goes quiet and the only statements so far have come from the GHQ, talking of importance of the Pak-US partnership.

This leaves us with the third and perhaps the option Pakistan is currently relying on. This option includes avoid taking the Trump’s bait, while pursuing diplomacy over confrontation and reaching out to regional players like China, Russia and Iran and simultaneously carrying out introspection that as to why there exists a huge perception gap between what we say and what others perceive. True, the war Pakistan has been fighting was thrust upon us after the 9/11 attacks. Yes, Pakistan had to endure huge economic and human losses. No doubt, Pakistan acted as a bulwark against groups such as al Qaeda. But what really overshadows Pakistan’s unparalleled sacrifices is when Mullah Mansur was found and killed in Pakistan, when we are unable to control people like Hafiz Saeed and then expect to get away with it. Washington’s punitive measures may have strategic reasons or are part of larger great games being played in this part of the region but that must not discourage those who are at the helm in Pakistan from examining and addressing our internal shortcomings.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 8^th, 2018.

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COMMENTS (4)

Khurram | 6 years ago | Reply I am simply stupefied into silence at naivety of the writer and readers alike, Osama Bin Laden died back in 2002 off kidney failure people. The person who was killed in a staged raid was just a drama played by pork eating Americans, performed to ridicule Pakistan in the first place, it is very painful already that our armed forces are risking their lives for the country but, it makes them cry when they see public playing along with lies spread by stupid Americans. As for Mullah Mansoor.. it makes me cry that you educated buffoons believe that tall American goof. For one thing, there are so many American and their stooge countries' agents roaming freely in Balochistan that it won't be difficult for one to pretend to be the Taliban Emir, they are not hard to copy in terms of looks, and die and we also know how easy it is to acquire Pakistani CNIC. Secondly, it is not very easy to kill an Emir of the elusive organisation these people by the way do not carry cell phones and have their own secret ways of communication, nor, they posses picture bearing pass-ports either also, these people don't have luxuries to eat a proper meal for days and yet, you believe him to own an Indus Corolla. Dang all the education, wasted in the most spectacular way. But perhaps the writer as well as the readers ought to read more and with open eyes in papers published by true Mujahideen to know all this otherwise, they will always just gibber like this. OBL was killed in a raid... biggest lie of the century and a shame to the memory of a soul that departed back in 2002 of natural causes.

Rex Minor | 6 years ago | Reply @Feroz: OBL was killed in Pakistan, Mullah Omar and Mullah Mansour also died in Pakistan and the current Emir also lives in Pakistan. None of this is perception nor is the reality that the Taliban and Haqqani network are killing Afghans in the hundreds. You are one of those who believes in the rants of the USA and Indian Governments. Why would Obama authorise the killing of an old man if infact he was OBL? Facts can be ascertained on ground in the region, the Talibans will never agree to the presence of a foreign military base or the combat force in the Hindukush. Pakistan military under the Indian born General did enter into an agreement with the devil the consequences of which the people of Pakistan have tolerated with sincerity but to no avail. The Trumpers are now playing the Indian card to blackmail Pakistan military which is no longer prepared to buy the bate. The only option being that they are most likely to repeal and renew, terminate its unholy alliance with todays enemies and seek new friends and stregnthen their allinces with current friends. Both USA and India are Pakistan worst adversaries in the 21st century. Rex Minor

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John F | 6 years ago | Reply Your military got you in this quagmire. It is for them to get you out of it.

Feroz | 6 years ago | Reply Copious use of words like "alleged" and "perceived" by the media over years has merely deceived the citizens, making them victims of propaganda. The other favorite phrase is "trust deficit", none of this can alter reality. OBL was killed in Pakistan, Mullah Omar and Mullah Mansour also died in Pakistan and the current Emir also lives in Pakistan. None of this is perception nor is the reality that the Taliban and Haqqani network are killing Afghans in the hundreds. A peaceful solution will not emerge now or later if no one from the Taliban comes forward for talks. We are bringing them for talks has been used as a ploy for years to buy time. The third solution recommended by the author is just a continuation of what is ongoing for years without end. It is unlikely to buy the country time any more. Pakistan is now being forced to decide between options one and two, both of which the country finds very unpleasant. My advise is, do not take the road that leads to a dead end.

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