A round across the bows

There is nothing new about American unilateralism, and it is ever more evident as the Trump presidency advances. The implied threat to extend drone strikes outside their ‘traditional’ areas — typically the mountainous and thinly populated northern parts of the country — required a response and the military has duly delivered. The balancing act performed by Pakistan and the US is increasingly difficult to maintain, with statements coming from the US side that can be ambivalent and confusing. There is the mailed fist approach that has at its core the ‘must do more’ mantra, and the ‘you are our ally and we must work together’ narrative coming in on a separate channel. Both are streaming simultaneously.

On Thursday December 28^th the army responded warning the US against unilateral action and no compromise on national respect and sovereignty. The head of the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) addressed the media in both Urdu and English in order that there be no misunderstanding in the mind of his global audience. That audience reaches across the upper strata of the US administration both civil and military and comes with its own message — Pakistan has done enough, continues to do enough and will do enough in the future, with the expectation that our ally in the war against terrorism is going to do more. That is a not-so-subtle shift in our position and a marker — unilateralism cannot be assumed to go un-responded to and Pakistan moves on to the front foot.

The capacity to take down drones has always been there and never acted upon. Were Pakistan to bring down a drone American response would depend on whether the action was pre- or post-strike. A takedown en route to the target would be quite different from hitting a homeward-bound drone, job done. The former is likely to be viewed considerably more seriously than the latter. All this is speculative, but has moved into the realm of the possible though not yet into the ‘probable’ zone. The Pakistan-America relationship needs to maintain the status quo for the good of both parties, and that is going to mean both parties doing more. Tread carefully.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 30^th, 2017.

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