An unusual alliance

Pakistani political parties have always been willing to enter cynical coalitions for the sake of power. But even then, the alliance between the PPP and PML-Q is quite extraordinary. That these two parties are relying on each other for power and relevance represents an about-turn from previous policies, but one that was necessary.

The PPP has been bleeding allies since it came into power. Its grand coalition with the PML-N dissipated after a few months. As its popularity sunk, the PPP lost the JUI-F, while the MQM has adopted a revolving-door policy to the coalition, entering and leaving seemingly at will. The upcoming budget will include some tough economic measures and there is no guarantee that the PPP has the votes to get it passed. Just for that reason alone, this alliance makes sense. It is likely, too, that the PPP-PML-Q partnership will continue beyond the next election. This marriage of convenience is the only way for the PPP to unseat the PML-N from the Punjab government. The PML-Q, meanwhile, has been so marginalised that it was losing its members to the PML-N. Allying itself with the PPP represents the PML-Q’s only hope for staying relevant.

Related political developments could conspire to further weaken the PML-N’s electoral fortunes. And conspire is the right word to describe a likely coming together of the PTI, MQM and assorted religious parties. Reports have been swirling that intelligence agencies, repeating their Islami Jamhoori Ittehad experiment, are looking to cobble together disparate political parties as a safeguard. Due to the PML-N’s anti-establishment rhetoric of late, the party may well have to deal with some damaging consequences in the next election. The sudden healing of the PTI and MQM’s fractured relationship, coupled with the PTI’s anti-drone rally in Peshawar that coincided with the establishment making noise about the issue, are the first signs that suggest that there is more to the situation than meets the eye. These developments could well split the PML-N’s vote and this will only be to the PPP’s and the PML-Q’s benefit.

Published in The Express Tribune, April 30^th, 2011.