Checklist for change

Can Shehbaz Sharif or Imran Khan be the transformational leader that Pakistan deserves? The answer may be easier than you think.

In the fog of political warfare this may appear presumptuous and yet it is not. Yes indeed it is not so because the checklist of ‘doables’ for the next elected leader has never been clearer — and never more essential if Pakistan has to turn the corner.

But this corner looks hazy today. It is a haze generated by the big questions of the day: Will the government complete its term? Will Nawaz Sharif be convicted? Will the civil-military divide widen as a result of the politics of confrontation? Have the institutions of the military and judiciary encroached upon the space of the elected representatives? Are we heading towards a ‘controlled democracy’ where only those approved by the military-judicial complex will be allowed to participate in electoral exercises? Will we continue to live through a state of political conflict while ignoring the key issues of governance that require to be addressed?



These are big questions indeed. They also have no easy answers. The run-up to next year’s general elections is littered with such questions and unknown probabilities. For instance, ever since Nawaz Sharif nominated Shehbaz Sharif as the party candidate for prime minister for the coming elections, people are debating if the real fight will be between Nawaz and Imran or Shehbaz and Imran since conventional wisdom says the vote bank belongs to Nawaz and Shehbaz can only bask in reflected electoral glory.

But all this will matter not once the elections are done and a new leader of the house emerges. If current trends hold, this would either be Shehbaz Sharif or Imran Khan. The new prime minister will have till 2023 to make real change happen — the type of change always promised, never delivered. If it’s Shehbaz in the PM house, we have never had a performer like him as the premier. If it’s Imran, we’ve never had a change-maker like him as the premier. Both will need to undertake radical action to prove themselves worthy of their mandate and expectations.

Assume for instance that the present shrunk space for political leadership remains shrunk after the next election. Assume the military controls policy on India and Afghanistan heavily influences relations with China, the United States, etc. Assume also that internal security matters relating to terrorism and anti-militancy operations also remain the sole domain of the military. Even then, the following five ‘low-hanging fruits’ of doables — if successfully achieved by the new prime minister — can of themselves radically transform Pakistan. No general or judge has stopped Pakistani leaders from plucking these low-hanging fruits in the past. These low-hanging fruits are primarily the responsibility of provincial governments and yet the assumption here is that the prime minister will take the lead in ensuring the provinces attain these five goals.

The primary reason for the failure of past leaders (both civilian and military) in achieving these targets is a combination of limited vision, limited will and limited competence. In Shehbaz and Imran perhaps we have the best shot so far in attempting these five key goals:

1. Rule of law: The new prime minister can start by establishing the writ of the law under his domain. The first reaction of the critics will be: “well what about the judges and the generals? Who will enforce the law and accountability on them?” This is a valid point but should perhaps be considered a longer-term goal. In the immediate five-year term, nothing stops the prime minister from ensuring and enforcing the rule of law that does not directly poke a finger in other institutions’ eyes. No previous leader succeeded in ensuring and enforcing the rule of law because of expediencies, political compromises and near absence of a determination to override the weaknesses of the system. But Shehbaz and Imran have shown they can be inflexible to an extreme. That’s what is required to enforce the rule of law. This will necessitate a reform of the police that has never been undertaken before, not even in Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa.

2. Double-digit growth rate: The new prime minister can set this as a target and undertake economic, fiscal and structural reforms necessary to achieve this target. Any financial expert will agree that attaining double-digit growth rate (we have barely crossed five per cent now) will need the kind of reforms that leaders have found impossible to undertake. Do Shehbaz and Imran have what it takes to barrel ahead and take such decisions that no Pakistani leader has had the vision or the will to take?

3. Education and health emergency: The new prime minister must achieve the breakthrough in education and health that every single Pakistani leader has failed to do. Shehbaz and Imran will have to ensure Pakistan gets to the goals that have been committed time and again and yet never achieved. Nothing short of a complete and absolute overhaul of these two sectors will be required and it is doable within five years if Shehbaz and Imran declare this their primary challenge.

4. Implementing the National Action Plan: The new prime minister can, if he wants, enforce NAP to the minutest detail. This will entail stepping on big toes and often cracking the whip, but Shehbaz and Imran can get this done if they really want it — despite the limitations set by allies like Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Samiul Haq (madrassa reform, for instance). The military has a key role in the success of NAP but the elected governments must lead the effort. So far the record has been dismal. Shehbaz and Imran will really need to push hard to fulfill the letter and spirit of the plan.



5. Fixing the electoral system: The new prime minister can lead Parliament into legislating iron-clad electoral reforms (not the half-baked ones attempted by the present Parliament) that settle once and for all the issue of holding free, fair and credible elections. This is no rocket science. But it does require steely resolve to push all stakeholders into locking electoral reforms in place and making the system as water-tight as possible.

These five key steps, if achieved in five years, can turn around Pakistan. For these to happen, Shehbaz and Imran will need iron resolve and steely nerves to get this creaky system to deliver. These two gentlemen may be our best shot in getting Pakistan to reform itself out of the mess that we are in today.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 24^th, 2017.

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