Election 2018 — a definite maybe

ECP is required under new election law to announce its detailed plans for election four months before the polls

As noted previously in these columns there has been something of a wobble when it comes to the running of the 2018 general election; a wobble produced not so much by the front-of-house political theatricals but by the nitty-gritty of boundary delimitation. This is no surprise given that the boundaries to be delimited are linked to the recently concluded census. The census was never going to be a universal pacifier given that it was years late, and the population has shifted and grown in the intervening years. There are numerous inconsistencies in the provisional figures now available, and the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) now has a task akin to herding cats and has to get the job done quick-sharp.

To the rescue has come the Council of Common Interests (CCI) that was called together by the federal government and appears to have broken the delimitation deadlock. The formula relies on Sindh agreeing to hold elections on the basis of the provisional census figures, and the government agreeing to a third-party audit of selected blocs amounting to one per cent of the population, yet to be notified. Assuming both of these cats are successfully corralled the chances of holding the 2018 elections on time are measurably increased.

Time is extremely tight and the choreography complex. The ECP is required under the new election law to announce its detailed plans for the election four months before the polls, and is required to complete door-to-door verification of voters by 5th May 2018. The blocs to be re-examined will be selected by a draw and there are three months to complete the exercise. Even with a fair wind it is going to be March 2018 before this part of the exercise is completed. If the delimitation and the final notification by the ECP are not completed by April 2018 the chances of an on-time poll recede. There really is no wiggle-room in the processes to be completed before the polls are due and there are innumerable opportunities along the way for rocks to be thrown in the road by a range of parties. Election 2018? A definite maybe.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 15^th, 2017.

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