Trump, trade and futures

Now the focus is going to shift on Friday to the Vietnamese city of Danang where Trump will arrive today

With President Trump coming to the half-way point in his swing through a range of countries whose existence he was possibly previously unaware of — he remarked when in Japan that he “did not know there were so many countries” — he approaches what may well be the crux of his tour. Thus far it has been on the platitudinous side with lacings of sycophancy. His oleaginous response to Chinese President Xi at the conclusion of a visit remarkable for — on the Chinese side — its opulence was a masterclass in How To Be Nice To Big Boys In The Playground.

Now the focus is going to shift on Friday to the Vietnamese city of Danang where he arrives for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Here it is expected that he is going to put the meat on the bones of his ‘America first’ mantra. The summit brings together 21 nations that collectively represent 60 per cent of the global GDP, and he may not find an audience as complaisant as thus far.

At least in theory he is among friends — global CEO’s who like himself are very rich and very powerful aside from any political role he has. He has already, in one of his earliest presidential moves, pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Many of the leaders at APEC are champions of multilateralism, anathemous to Trump who has been acerbic in his condemnation of it. He sees American jobs being snatched away as advantages accrue to countries that can offer cheap labour and heavy subsidies — of which there is no shortage in APEC members and aspirants.

In all likelihood president Trump is going to elaborate on his vision of an open and free Indo-Pacific region, but the wild card from the Trump perspective is China — who he was careful not to blame for ‘unfairness’ in their bilateral trading relationship but two days ago. He is clearly untroubled by cognitive dissonance. The APEC members are not going to allow themselves to be bullied. America globally is in retreat and there are fresher and equally muscled players on the block. The APEC summit may not be plain sailing for President Trump.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 10^th, 2017.

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